FAW Championship predictions
Wales · second tier · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every FAW Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter FAW Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's FAW Championship fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:30Newport CityvTrethomas BluebirdsNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:30Pontypridd TownvAfan LidoOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 19:30Swansea UniversityvPontardawe TownNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45Denbigh TownvBala TownBTTSModerate
- 11 Sept · 19:45Caerau (Ely)vllanelli AFCBTTSStrong
- 12 Sept · 14:30CaerswsvBrickfield RangersNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30GuilsfieldvGresford AthleticOver 2.5Strong
- 12 Sept · 14:30Holyhead HotspurvNewtown AFCNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Mold AlexandravLlanuwchllynNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30PenrhyncochvBangor City 1876 FCBTTSModerate
- 12 Sept · 14:30PorthmadogvRuthin TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 14:30RhylvBuckley TownOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 14:30Caerphilly AthleticvAberystwyth TownNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Cardiff DraconiansvBaglan DragonsNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Carmarthen TownvYnyshir AlbionsHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 14:30Treowen StarsvLlantwit MajorOver 2.5Moderate
- 15 Sept · 19:30PenrhyncochvBala TownBTTSModerate
FAW Championship table
South
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea University | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Pontypridd Town | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Baglan Dragons | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 12 | |
| 5 |  Treowen Stars | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Carmarthen Town | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 8 | |
| 9 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Afan Lido | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Newport City | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Pontardawe Town | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | |
| 15 |  llanelli AFC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
North
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 18 | |
| 2 |  Newtown AFC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1 | +14 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Bala Town | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Mold Alexandra | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Caersws | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Porthmadog | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Llanuwchllyn | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Guilsfield | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Rhyl | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Buckley Town | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Denbigh Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Ruthin Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Penrhyncoch | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 1 | |
| 16 |  Gresford Athletic | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 19 | -18 | 0 |
Official FAW Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's FAW Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 60.7% | 40.0% | -20.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.8% | 80.0% | -2.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 53.3% | 66.7% | +13.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 75.5% | 66.7% | -8.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 57 | 63.2% | 77.2% | +14.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 19 | 64.6% | 68.4% | +3.8 |
Settled FAW Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent FAW Championship results
- 6 Sept · 14:30Gresford Athletic1-5Mold AlexandraOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 14:30Porthmadog1-2Bala TownOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 14:30Newtown AFC1-0Denbigh TownOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 14:30Llanuwchllyn4-0Holyhead HotspurNo pick
- 5 Sept · 14:30Buckley Town5-0PenrhyncochOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 14:30Brickfield Rangers2-0GuilsfieldNo pick
- 5 Sept · 14:30Bangor City 1876 FC2-2RhylOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45Trethomas Bluebirds2-2Caerphilly AthleticNo pick
- 4 Sept · 19:45Ruthin Town0-3CaerswsBTTS✗
- 4 Sept · 19:30llanelli AFC0-2Treowen StarsOver 2.5✗
About FAW Championship
FAW Championship is the second tier of Wales football played across 2 groups. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.47 goals per game over 97 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 72% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 17% drawn. The table is published as South, North.
How the model handles FAW Championship
Every FAW Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 97 FAW Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.3% on average and landing 71.1%. Its best-calibrated FAW Championship market so far is home or draw (82.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these FAW Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the FAW Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which FAW Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled FAW Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are FAW Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter FAW Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.