Süper Lig predictions
Turkey · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Süper Lig match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Süper Lig in the Bet Finder.
This week's Süper Lig fixtures
- 26 Oct · 16:00BeşiktaşvBaşakşehirNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 16:00RizesporvTrabzonsporNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 18:30GalatasarayvFenerbahçeOver 2.5Moderate
- 30 Oct · 17:00KonyasporvGalatasarayNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 10:30Erzurumspor FKvÇorum FKNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00KocaelisporvRizesporNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00FenerbahçevGöztepeNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 10:30AmedvEyüpsporNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00BaşakşehirvSamsunsporNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00TrabzonsporvGaziantep FKNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00KasımpaşavBeşiktaşNo pick yet
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Amed | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 20 | |
| 2 |  Galatasaray | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 16 | |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 | |
| 5 |  Kasımpaşa | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 16 | |
| 6 |  Beşiktaş | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Kocaelispor | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Erzurumspor FK | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 14 | |
| 9 |  Çorum FK | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 13 | |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Başakşehir | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Rizespor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Göztepe | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Gaziantep FK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Konyaspor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 | |
| 17 |  Samsunspor | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Eyüpspor | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 23 | -21 | 3 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation - 1. Lig
Official Süper Lig table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Süper Lig record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 14 | 64.1% | 85.7% | +21.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 16 | 83.1% | 87.5% | +4.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 61.7% | 50.0% | -11.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 80.4% | 75.0% | -5.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 61.5% | 68.8% | +7.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Süper Lig matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Süper Lig results
- 25 Oct · 16:00Göztepe2-0Çorum FKNo pick
- 25 Oct · 13:00Konyaspor2-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.No pick
- 24 Oct · 17:00Samsunspor1-2AmedNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:00Gaziantep FK1-3Erzurumspor FKNo pick
- 24 Oct · 11:30Eyüpspor0-1KasımpaşaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 18:00Alanyaspor1-2KocaelisporNo pick
- 19 Oct · 18:00Trabzonspor2-0BeşiktaşNo pick
- 18 Oct · 17:00Başakşehir2-1Gaziantep FKHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 14:00Kocaelispor1-2GöztepeNo pick
- 18 Oct · 11:30Kasımpaşa4-1SamsunsporNo pick
About Süper Lig
Süper Lig is the top flight of Turkey football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.86 goals per game over 78 matches: both teams scored in 45%, 58% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 18% drawn. Amed lead the table on 20 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Süper Lig
Every Süper Lig fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 54 Süper Lig tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.0% on average and landing 77.8%. Its best-calibrated Süper Lig market so far is home or draw (83.1% claimed against 87.5% hit over 16 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Süper Lig predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Süper Lig table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Süper Lig market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Süper Lig tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.1% claimed against 87.5% hit over 16 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Süper Lig fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Süper Lig by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.