Süper Lig predictions
Turkey · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Süper Lig match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Süper Lig in the Bet Finder.
This week's Süper Lig fixtures
- 11 Sept · 18:00BeşiktaşvErzurumspor FKHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 15:00EyüpsporvRizesporNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00SamsunsporvÇorum FKNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 18:00AlanyasporvGöztepeNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 18:00KonyasporvTrabzonsporNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 15:00Gençlerbirliği S.K.vKasımpaşaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00AmedvBaşakşehirNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00GalatasarayvKocaelisporHome or DrawSolid
- 14 Sept · 18:00Gaziantep FKvFenerbahçeNo pick yet
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 | |
| 2 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 | |
| 3 |  Kocaelispor | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 | |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Gaziantep FK | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 | |
| 6 |  Amed | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Alanyaspor | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Kasımpaşa | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Rizespor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Başakşehir | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Samsunspor | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Çorum FK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Erzurumspor FK | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | |
| 17 |  Göztepe | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation - 1. Lig
Official Süper Lig table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Süper Lig record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 62.8% | 66.7% | +3.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.4% | 71.4% | -11.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 64.2% | 0.0% | -64.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 81.1% | 0.0% | -81.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 60.7% | 71.4% | +10.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Süper Lig matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Süper Lig results
- 7 Sept · 18:00Rizespor0-1AlanyasporNo pick
- 7 Sept · 18:00Göztepe2-4Gaziantep FKHome or Draw✗
- 6 Sept · 18:00Trabzonspor5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Home or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 18:00Kocaelispor1-0SamsunsporNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Kasımpaşa2-2AmedNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Çorum FK3-0EyüpsporNo pick
- 5 Sept · 18:00Fenerbahçe1-2BeşiktaşOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Erzurumspor FK1-0KonyasporNo pick
- 4 Sept · 18:00Başakşehir2-3GalatasarayNo pick
- 31 Aug · 19:30Beşiktaş6-2Çorum FKNo pick
About Süper Lig
Süper Lig is the top flight of Turkey football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.92 goals per game over 36 matches: both teams scored in 53%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 19% drawn. Galatasaray lead the table on 10 points from 4 games.
How the model handles Süper Lig
Every Süper Lig fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 22 Süper Lig tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.3% on average and landing 63.6%. Its best-calibrated Süper Lig market so far is home win (62.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Süper Lig predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Süper Lig table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Süper Lig market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Süper Lig tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.8% claimed against 66.7% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Süper Lig fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Süper Lig by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.