1. Lig predictions
Turkey · second tier · 20 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Lig match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Lig in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Lig fixtures
- 25 Oct · 13:00AntalyasporvBodrum FKNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 16:00KeçiörengücüvBursasporNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 17:00Mardin 1969vManisa F.K.No pick yet
- 30 Oct · 17:00Esenler EroksporvKeçiörengücüNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 10:30Vanspor FKvSarıyerNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00BursasporvBandırmasporNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Fatih KaragümrükvPendiksporNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Manisa F.K.vBatman PetrolsporNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 10:30SivassporvBolusporNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00Iğdır FKvAntalyasporNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00İstanbulsporvMardin 1969No pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00Bodrum FKvÜmraniyesporNo pick yet
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 26 | |
| 2 |  Iğdır FK | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 26 | |
| 3 |  Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 | |
| 4 |  Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 20 | |
| 5 |  Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 20 | |
| 6 |  Muğlaspor | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 18 | |
| 7 |  Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 | |
| 8 |  Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 18 | |
| 9 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 | |
| 10 |  Sarıyer | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 | |
| 11 |  Bandırmaspor | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 | |
| 12 |  Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 14 | |
| 13 |  Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 | |
| 14 |  Sivasspor | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 | |
| 15 |  Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 | |
| 16 |  Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 10 | |
| 17 |  Vanspor FK | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 10(-2) | |
| 18 |  Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 10 | |
| 19 |  İstanbulspor | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 31 | -22 | 5 | |
| 20 |  Boluspor | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 1 |
- Promotion - Super Lig
- Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)
- Promotion - 1. Lig (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
- Relegation
Official 1. Lig table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Vanspor FK · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Lig record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 62.6% | 75.0% | +12.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 82.7% | 75.0% | -7.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 58.2% | 25.0% | -33.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled 1. Lig matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Lig results
- 25 Oct · 10:30Pendikspor2-2KayserisporNo pick
- 25 Oct · 10:30Batman Petrolspor3-2Esenler EroksporNo pick
- 24 Oct · 17:00Sarıyer0-2Fatih KaragümrükNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:00Muğlaspor5-0İstanbulsporNo pick
- 24 Oct · 11:30Ümraniyespor4-0SivassporNo pick
- 24 Oct · 11:30Bandırmaspor1-2Iğdır FKNo pick
- 23 Oct · 18:00Boluspor0-3Vanspor FKNo pick
- 19 Oct · 18:00Esenler Erokspor4-2Mardin 1969No pick
- 19 Oct · 18:00Bursaspor2-0PendiksporNo pick
- 19 Oct · 15:00Manisa F.K.3-4MuğlasporNo pick
About 1. Lig
1. Lig is the second tier of Turkey football with 20 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.73 goals per game over 116 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 49% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 35% with 31% drawn. Kayserispor lead the table on 26 points from 11 games. Vanspor FK (-2) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles 1. Lig
Every 1. Lig fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 12 1. Lig tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.8% on average and landing 58.3%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Lig predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Lig table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Lig market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled 1. Lig tips since 27 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are 1. Lig fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Lig by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.