Ligue 1 predictions
Tunisia · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Ligue 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ligue 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ligue 1 fixtures
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ES Tunis | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 8 | |
| 3 |  CA Bizertin | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Club Africain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 6 | |
| 6 |  US Monastirienne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 | |
| 7 |  AS Marsa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 8 |  CS Sfaxien | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Stade Tunisien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | |
| 10 |  US Ben Guerdane | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | |
| 11 |  ES Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 12 |  ES Zarzis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 13 |  ES Metlaoui | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 | |
| 14 |  Olympique Béja | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | |
| 15 |  ES Hammam-Sousse | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | |
| 16 |  CS Hammam-Lif | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
- Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
- Relegation - Ligue 2
Official Ligue 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's Ligue 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 64.9% | 66.7% | +1.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 83.0% | 100.0% | +17.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.3% | 100.0% | +49.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.6% | 100.0% | +23.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ligue 1 matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ligue 1 results
- 13 Sept · 16:00Olympique Béja1-1Progrès Sakiet EddaïerNo pick
- 13 Sept · 16:00Jeunesse Sportive Omrane1-0ES MetlaouiDraw✗
- 13 Sept · 16:00CS Hammam-Lif0-1ES TunisAway or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 16:00US Monastirienne3-3US Ben GuerdaneHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 16:00ES Hammam-Sousse1-3Stade TunisienNo pick
- 12 Sept · 16:00AS Marsa1-0ES SahelNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30ES Metlaoui1-0ES Hammam-SousseNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30ES Sahel1-1Jeunesse Sportive OmraneNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30ES Tunis2-1AS MarsaHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 16:30Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer1-0CS Hammam-LifHome or Draw✓
About Ligue 1
Ligue 1 is the top flight of Tunisia football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.08 goals per game over 26 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 35% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 54% with 27% drawn. ES Tunis lead the table on 9 points from 4 games.
How the model handles Ligue 1
Every Ligue 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 11 Ligue 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.5% on average and landing 90.9%. Its best-calibrated Ligue 1 market so far is home or draw (83.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ligue 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ligue 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ligue 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ligue 1 tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ligue 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ligue 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.