Ligue 1 predictions
Tunisia · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 30 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Ligue 1 match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ligue 1 in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ligue 1 fixtures
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 17 | |
| 2 |  ES Tunis | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Club Africain | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 12 | |
| 4 |  US Monastirienne | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 | |
| 5 |  Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 | |
| 6 |  CA Bizertin | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Stade Tunisien | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 10 | |
| 9 |  AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 | |
| 10 |  CS Sfaxien | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 | |
| 11 |  ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 | |
| 12 |  ES Zarzis | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 13 |  CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | |
| 15 |  ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 3 | |
| 16 |  ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
- Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
- Relegation - Ligue 2
Official Ligue 1 table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.
This season in numbers
The model's Ligue 1 record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 66.0% | 80.0% | +14.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 83.6% | 100.0% | +16.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.3% | 100.0% | +49.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.6% | 100.0% | +23.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ligue 1 matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ligue 1 results
- 29 Oct · 13:30Stade Tunisien1-0ES ZarzisHome or Draw✓
- 29 Oct · 13:30CS Sfaxien0-0ES TunisDraw✓
- 29 Oct · 13:30Club Africain3-2CA BizertinHome or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 14:30Jeunesse Sportive Omrane0-0Olympique BéjaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:30CA Bizertin3-1ES Hammam-SousseNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:30US Ben Guerdane1-0Stade TunisienNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:30AS Marsa1-1CS Hammam-LifDraw✓
- 18 Oct · 14:30Olympique Béja1-2ES SahelNo pick
- 18 Oct · 14:30US Monastirienne1-0Progrès Sakiet EddaïerNo pick
- 18 Oct · 14:30CS Hammam-Lif1-1Jeunesse Sportive OmraneDraw✓
About Ligue 1
Ligue 1 is the top flight of Tunisia football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 1.98 goals per game over 51 matches: both teams scored in 45%, 33% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 53% with 28% drawn. US Ben Guerdane lead the table on 17 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Ligue 1
Every Ligue 1 fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 17 Ligue 1 tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 76.1% on average and landing 94.1%. Its best-calibrated Ligue 1 market so far is home win (66.0% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ligue 1 predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ligue 1 table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ligue 1 market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ligue 1 tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 66.0% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ligue 1 fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Ligue 1 by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.