Liga I predictions
Romania · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga I match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga I in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga I fixtures
- 11 Sept · 16:00Farul ConstantavUta AradHome or DrawModerate
- 11 Sept · 19:00CsikszeredavDinamo BucurestiNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 16:30Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorghevCFR 1907 ClujNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:30RapidvFC VoluntariHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 13:00Arges PitestivFC BotosaniNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:30Corvinul HunedoaravUniversitatea CraiovaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 16:00Universitatea ClujvOţelulNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 19:00FCSBvPetrolul PloiestiNo pick yet
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Bucuresti | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Rapid | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Petrolul Ploiesti | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Universitatea Craiova | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Farul Constanta | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | |
| 6 |  FCSB | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  FC Botosani | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Corvinul Hunedoara | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 9 |  CFR 1907 Cluj | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Oţelul | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Arges Pitesti | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Uta Arad | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Universitatea Cluj | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 | |
| 15 |  FC Voluntari | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Csikszereda | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 1 |
- Promotion - Superliga (Championship Group)
- Superliga (Relegation Group)
Official Liga I table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga I record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 62.3% | 37.5% | -24.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 83.0% | 83.3% | +0.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 57.7% | 100.0% | +42.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga I matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga I results
- 7 Sept · 18:30Universitatea Craiova4-0Universitatea ClujHome or Draw✓
- 7 Sept · 15:30FC Voluntari1-0Arges PitestiNo pick
- 6 Sept · 18:30Oţelul0-1RapidNo pick
- 6 Sept · 13:00Petrolul Ploiesti2-0Corvinul HunedoaraNo pick
- 5 Sept · 18:30Dinamo Bucuresti2-1FCSBNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:30Uta Arad5-1CsikszeredaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 13:00FC Botosani5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheNo pick
- 4 Sept · 18:30CFR 1907 Cluj0-0Farul ConstantaHome or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 18:30Rapid1-1Universitatea CraiovaNo pick
- 30 Aug · 19:00FCSB1-3Uta AradHome or Draw✗
About Liga I
Liga I is the top flight of Romania football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.44 goals per game over 63 matches: both teams scored in 44%, 44% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 54% with 30% drawn. Dinamo Bucuresti lead the table on 17 points from 8 games.
How the model handles Liga I
Every Liga I fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 21 Liga I tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.9% on average and landing 66.6%. Its best-calibrated Liga I market so far is home or draw (83.0% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga I predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga I table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga I market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga I tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.0% claimed against 83.3% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga I fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga I by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.