I Liga predictions
Poland · second tier · 18 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every I Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter I Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's I Liga fixtures
- 25 Oct · 11:00Odra OpolevPogoń SiedlceNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 13:30Ruch ChorzówvPogoń Grod. MazowieckiNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 16:00PodbeskidzievStal RzeszówNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 17:00Warta PoznańvŁKS ŁódźDrawModerate
- 30 Oct · 19:30Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivStal MielecNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:30Lechia GdanskvUnia SkierniewiceNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:30Miedz LegnicavNiecieczaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:30PodbeskidzievWarta PoznańNo pick yet
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 21 | |
| 2 |  Polonia Warszawa | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 21 | |
| 3 |  Nieciecza | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 20 | |
| 4 |  Lechia Gdansk | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 | |
| 5 |  Miedz Legnica | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Warta Poznań | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 18 | |
| 7 |  Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 | |
| 8 |  ŁKS Łódź | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 | |
| 9 |  Polonia Bytom | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 18 | |
| 10 |  Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 | |
| 11 |  Arka Gdynia | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 | |
| 12 |  Chrobry Głogów | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 13 | |
| 13 |  Stal Mielec | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 13 | |
| 14 |  Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 | |
| 15 |  Odra Opole | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 12 | |
| 16 |  Puszcza Niepołomice | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 | |
| 17 |  Podbeskidzie | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 | |
| 18 |  Unia Skierniewice | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official I Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's I Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 58.2% | 100.0% | +41.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 80.8% | 100.0% | +19.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 53.5% | 0.0% | -53.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.7% | 0.0% | -77.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 58.4% | 42.9% | -15.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 62.7% | 100.0% | +37.3 |
Settled I Liga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent I Liga results
- 24 Oct · 16:45Puszcza Niepołomice2-1Lechia GdanskNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:30Stal Mielec0-0Chrobry GłogówNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:30Unia Skierniewice1-2Polonia BytomNo pick
- 24 Oct · 14:30Arka Gdynia3-1NiecieczaBTTS✓
- 23 Oct · 17:00Polonia Warszawa1-1Miedz LegnicaNo pick
- 19 Oct · 17:00Nieciecza2-0Puszcza NiepołomiceNo pick
- 18 Oct · 19:30Lechia Gdansk2-1Arka GdyniaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 16:00Pogoń Siedlce3-4Stal RzeszówNo pick
- 18 Oct · 13:30ŁKS Łódź1-0PodbeskidzieNo pick
- 17 Oct · 14:30Polonia Bytom3-2Chrobry GłogówNo pick
About I Liga
I Liga is the second tier of Poland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.73 goals per game over 104 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 25% drawn. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki lead the table on 21 points from 11 games.
How the model handles I Liga
Every I Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 13 I Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 61.9% on average and landing 53.9%. Its best-calibrated I Liga market so far is over 2.5 (58.4% claimed against 42.9% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these I Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the I Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which I Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled I Liga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 58.4% claimed against 42.9% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are I Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter I Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.