I Liga predictions
Poland · second tier · 18 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every I Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter I Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's I Liga fixtures
- 11 Sept · 17:00Polonia WarszawavPolonia BytomNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45Puszcza NiepołomicevŁKS ŁódźNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Chrobry GłogówvPogoń SiedlceNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Ruch ChorzówvPodbeskidzieNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 14:30Warta PoznańvArka GdyniaAway or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 11:00Unia SkierniewicevPogoń Grod. MazowieckiNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:30Lechia GdanskvMiedz LegnicaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00Odra OpolevStal RzeszówNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 18:00Stal MielecvNiecieczaNo pick yet
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Miedz Legnica | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 14 | |
| 3 |  ŁKS Łódź | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Chrobry Głogów | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Arka Gdynia | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Polonia Warszawa | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Nieciecza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Ruch Chorzów | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Warta Poznań | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Odra Opole | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Stal Mielec | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Pogoń Siedlce | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Stal Rzeszów | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Polonia Bytom | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Lechia Gdansk | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Podbeskidzie | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Puszcza Niepołomice | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Unia Skierniewice | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation
Official I Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's I Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 58.2% | 100.0% | +41.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 58.4% | 33.3% | -25.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled I Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent I Liga results
- 7 Sept · 18:00Ruch Chorzów3-1Unia SkierniewiceNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:00Polonia Bytom0-0PodbeskidzieNo pick
- 6 Sept · 13:30Arka Gdynia1-1ŁKS ŁódźNo pick
- 5 Sept · 14:30Stal Mielec1-1Odra OpoleNo pick
- 5 Sept · 14:30Stal Rzeszów2-1Polonia WarszawaOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 14:30Miedz Legnica1-1Chrobry GłogówNo pick
- 4 Sept · 20:00Nieciecza2-1Lechia GdanskNo pick
- 4 Sept · 17:00Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1-0Warta PoznańNo pick
- 30 Aug · 16:15Chrobry Głogów2-0Ruch ChorzówNo pick
- 30 Aug · 13:30Arka Gdynia1-1Polonia BytomOver 2.5✗
About I Liga
I Liga is the second tier of Poland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.65 goals per game over 62 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 29% drawn. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki lead the table on 15 points from 7 games.
How the model handles I Liga
Every I Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 7 I Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 58.4% on average and landing 42.8%. Its best-calibrated I Liga market so far is over 2.5 (58.4% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these I Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the I Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which I Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled I Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 58.4% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are I Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter I Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.