Ekstraklasa predictions
Poland · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Ekstraklasa match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ekstraklasa in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ekstraklasa fixtures
- 11 Sept · 17:00Raków CzęstochowavMotor LublinOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 19:30Wisla KrakowvJagielloniaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 13:45Slask WroclawvKorona KielceDrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 16:30Gornik ZabrzevLech PoznanNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:15Zaglebie LubinvGKS KatowiceNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 11:15Wisla PlockvCracovia KrakowNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:45Pogon SzczecinvWieczysta KrakówNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:30Legia WarszawavWidzew ŁódźNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 18:00Radomiak RadomvPiast GliwiceNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 17:00Raków CzęstochowavZaglebie LubinNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:30Korona KielcevGornik ZabrzeNo pick yet
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lech Poznan | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 | |
| 2 |  Legia Warszawa | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Gornik Zabrze | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Jagiellonia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 | |
| 5 |  Wisla Krakow | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Piast Gliwice | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 | |
| 7 |  GKS Katowice | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Pogon Szczecin | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Korona Kielce | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Cracovia Krakow | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Radomiak Radom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Widzew Łódź | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Slask Wroclaw | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 | |
| 15 |  Motor Lublin | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 5 | |
| 16 |  Wisla Plock | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 5 | |
| 17 |  Wieczysta Kraków | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Raków Częstochowa | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 |
- Qualifying
- EL Qualification
- Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Ekstraklasa table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Ekstraklasa record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.0% | -12.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 82.7% | 88.9% | +6.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 59.3% | 50.0% | -9.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Ekstraklasa matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ekstraklasa results
- 7 Sept · 19:30Pogon Szczecin1-1Wisla PlockHome or Draw✓
- 7 Sept · 17:00Wieczysta Kraków1-1Zaglebie LubinNo pick
- 6 Sept · 19:15Jagiellonia2-1Slask WroclawHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 16:30Lech Poznan1-0Raków CzęstochowaHome Win✓
- 6 Sept · 13:45Cracovia Krakow0-1Gornik ZabrzeNo pick
- 5 Sept · 19:15Motor Lublin2-3Legia WarszawaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 16:30Korona Kielce1-1Wisla KrakowNo pick
- 5 Sept · 13:45Widzew Łódź0-0Radomiak RadomNo pick
- 4 Sept · 19:30Piast Gliwice3-0GKS KatowiceNo pick
- 3 Sept · 19:30Lech Poznan2-1JagielloniaNo pick
About Ekstraklasa
Ekstraklasa is the top flight of Poland football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.86 goals per game over 58 matches: both teams scored in 64%, 59% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 28% drawn. Lech Poznan lead the table on 16 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Ekstraklasa
Every Ekstraklasa fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 23 Ekstraklasa tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.6% on average and landing 65.2%. Its best-calibrated Ekstraklasa market so far is home or draw (82.7% claimed against 88.9% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ekstraklasa predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ekstraklasa table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ekstraklasa market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ekstraklasa tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.7% claimed against 88.9% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ekstraklasa fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ekstraklasa by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.