Eliteserien predictions
Norway · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Eliteserien match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eliteserien in the Bet Finder.
This week's Eliteserien fixtures
- 12 Sept · 15:00LillestromvValerengaOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 17:00RosenborgvTromsoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:30VikingvKristiansund BKNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00Bodo/GlimtvSandefjordNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00Ham-KamvMoldeNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00KFUM OslovAalesundNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00StartvBrannNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:15FredrikstadvSarpsborg 08 FFNo pick yet
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | +34 | 47 | |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | +24 | 44 | |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | +12 | 35 | |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 33 | |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 27 | |
| 7 |  Brann | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 37 | 29 | +8 | 26 | |
| 8 |  Fredrikstad | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 26 | |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 24 | |
| 10 |  Ham-Kam | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 23 | |
| 11 |  Valerenga | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 | |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 20 | |
| 13 |  Kristiansund BK | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 19 | |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Eliteserien (Relegation)
- Relegation - OBOS-ligaen
Official Eliteserien table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Eliteserien record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 11 | 64.8% | 72.7% | +7.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 83.3% | 70.0% | -13.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 8 | 55.8% | 50.0% | -5.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 8 | 76.8% | 87.5% | +10.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 27 | 62.8% | 81.5% | +18.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.6% | 50.0% | -14.6 |
Settled Eliteserien matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Eliteserien results
- 6 Sept · 18:15Kristiansund BK2-0TromsoNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:00Sarpsborg 08 FF2-2ValerengaOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 16:00Molde2-0KFUM OsloOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 17:00Brann1-2LillestromHome Win✗
- 5 Sept · 15:00Rosenborg4-0Ham-KamHome or Draw✓
- 4 Sept · 20:00Sandefjord1-1VikingAway or Draw✓
- 4 Sept · 18:00Fredrikstad1-2Bodo/GlimtAway or Draw✓
- 4 Sept · 18:00Aalesund2-0StartOver 2.5✗
- 30 Aug · 18:15Lillestrom1-4FredrikstadNo pick
- 30 Aug · 16:00Viking2-1AalesundHome or Draw✓
About Eliteserien
Eliteserien is the top flight of Norway football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.07 goals per game over 152 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 20% drawn. Bodo/Glimt lead the table on 47 points from 19 games.
How the model handles Eliteserien
Every Eliteserien fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 66 Eliteserien tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.1% on average and landing 74.2%. Its best-calibrated Eliteserien market so far is away win (55.8% claimed against 50.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Eliteserien predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Eliteserien table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Eliteserien market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Eliteserien tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away win: 55.8% claimed against 50.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Eliteserien fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Eliteserien by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.