Eliteserien predictions
Norway · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Eliteserien match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Eliteserien in the Bet Finder.
This week's Eliteserien fixtures
- 25 Oct · 13:30VikingvTromsoOver 2.5Moderate
- 25 Oct · 16:00Kristiansund BKvKFUM OsloBTTSModerate
- 25 Oct · 16:00LillestromvBrannBTTSModerate
- 25 Oct · 16:00Sarpsborg 08 FFvAalesundNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 16:00StartvSandefjordOver 2.5Moderate
- 25 Oct · 18:15MoldevFredrikstadOver 2.5Moderate
- 30 Oct · 18:00Bodo/GlimtvVikingNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00FredrikstadvRosenborgNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00AalesundvSandefjordNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:30BrannvMoldeNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00KFUM OslovHam-KamNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00Sarpsborg 08 FFvKristiansund BKNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00StartvLillestromNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 18:15ValerengavTromsoNo pick yet
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 23 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 59 | 22 | +37 | 56 | |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 21 | +37 | 56 | |
| 3 |  Molde | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 52 | 35 | +17 | 40 | |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 40 | |
| 5 |  Tromso | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 31 | +11 | 40 | |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 36 | |
| 7 |  Brann | 23 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 29 | |
| 8 |  Valerenga | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Fredrikstad | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 29 | |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 37 | -9 | 29 | |
| 11 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 28 | |
| 12 |  Ham-Kam | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 26 | |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 | |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 24 | |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 19 | |
| 16 |  Start | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 16 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Eliteserien (Relegation)
- Relegation - OBOS-ligaen
Official Eliteserien table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Eliteserien record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 20 | 67.2% | 70.0% | +2.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 18 | 84.7% | 77.8% | -6.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 10 | 55.7% | 50.0% | -5.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 10 | 76.6% | 70.0% | -6.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 47 | 63.6% | 72.3% | +8.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 7 | 64.7% | 57.1% | -7.6 |
Settled Eliteserien matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Eliteserien results
- 24 Oct · 17:00Ham-Kam0-3RosenborgNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Bodo/Glimt0-1ValerengaOver 2.5✗
- 18 Oct · 18:15Tromso1-1KFUM OsloOver 2.5✗
- 18 Oct · 16:00Valerenga3-1BrannBTTS✓
- 18 Oct · 16:00Sandefjord0-2LillestromNo pick
- 18 Oct · 16:00Molde6-1StartOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 13:30Sarpsborg 08 FF0-3RosenborgBTTS✗
- 17 Oct · 17:00Viking3-2FredrikstadOver 2.5✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00Kristiansund BK1-4AalesundNo pick
- 17 Oct · 13:00Ham-Kam0-2Bodo/GlimtAway or Draw✓
About Eliteserien
Eliteserien is the top flight of Norway football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.19 goals per game over 186 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 20% drawn. Viking lead the table on 56 points from 23 games.
How the model handles Eliteserien
Every Eliteserien fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 112 Eliteserien tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.2% on average and landing 69.6%. Its best-calibrated Eliteserien market so far is home win (67.2% claimed against 70.0% hit over 20 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Eliteserien predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Eliteserien table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Eliteserien market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Eliteserien tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 67.2% claimed against 70.0% hit over 20 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Eliteserien fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Eliteserien by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.