1. Division predictions
Norway · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Division fixtures
- 25 Oct · 16:00BrynevEgersundBTTSSolid
- 25 Oct · 16:00MossvAsaneBTTSSolid
- 25 Oct · 16:00SogndalvKongsvingerBTTSModerate
- 25 Oct · 16:00StabaekvODD BallklubbHome or DrawModerate
- 1 Nov · 13:30RanheimvSogndalNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00AsanevHaugesundNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00EgersundvStrommenNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00hoddvBryneNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00LynvRaufossNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00ODD BallklubbvSandnes ULFNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00StromsgodsetvMossNo pick yet
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Stromsgodset | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 76 | 33 | +43 | 60 | |
| 2 |  Kongsvinger | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 81 | 42 | +39 | 59 | |
| 3 |  Haugesund | 27 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 78 | 45 | +33 | 59 | |
| 4 |  Stabaek | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 64 | 34 | +30 | 52 | |
| 5 |  ODD Ballklubb | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 45 | |
| 6 |  Bryne | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 39 | |
| 7 |  Ranheim | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 38 | |
| 8 |  hodd | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 38 | |
| 9 |  Egersund | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 34 | |
| 10 |  Strommen | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 33 | |
| 11 |  Lyn | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 31 | |
| 12 |  Moss | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 29 | |
| 13 |  Sogndal | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 27 | |
| 14 |  Sandnes ULF | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 26 | |
| 15 |  Asane | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 61 | -24 | 23 | |
| 16 |  Raufoss | 28 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 31 | 74 | -43 | 20 |
- Promotion
- Promotion Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official 1. Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 63.6% | 70.0% | +6.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 82.7% | 87.5% | +4.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 48 | 61.8% | 70.8% | +9.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 19 | 65.2% | 63.2% | -2.0 |
Settled 1. Division matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Division results
- 25 Oct · 13:30Sandnes ULF2-1LynBTTS✓
- 25 Oct · 13:30Haugesund3-2hoddHome or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 12:00Strommen1-0StromsgodsetNo pick
- 24 Oct · 13:00Raufoss1-3RanheimBTTS✓
- 21 Oct · 18:00Sogndal2-1RaufossBTTS✓
- 18 Oct · 16:00Ranheim4-2BryneBTTS✓
- 18 Oct · 16:00ODD Ballklubb1-2StrommenBTTS✓
- 18 Oct · 16:00Lyn1-0MossBTTS✗
- 18 Oct · 16:00Kongsvinger4-0Sandnes ULFOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 16:00hodd5-1RaufossBTTS✓
About 1. Division
1. Division is the second tier of Norway football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.80 goals per game over 220 matches: both teams scored in 65%, 71% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 51% with 17% drawn. Stromsgodset lead the table on 60 points from 27 games.
How the model handles 1. Division
Every 1. Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 85 1. Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.7% on average and landing 70.6%. Its best-calibrated 1. Division market so far is btts (65.2% claimed against 63.2% hit over 19 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled 1. Division tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is btts: 65.2% claimed against 63.2% hit over 19 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are 1. Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.