Premiership predictions
Northern Ireland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
- 27 Oct · 19:45LarnevLimavady UnitedOver 2.5Moderate
- 30 Oct · 19:45Coleraine FCvGlentoranNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 19:45LarnevPortadownNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Ballymena UnitedvBangorNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Cliftonville FCvCarrick RangersNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Limavady UnitedvCrusaders FCNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00LinfieldvDungannon SwiftsNo pick yet
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 34 | |
| 2 |  Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 32 | |
| 3 |  Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 22 | |
| 4 |  Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 20 | |
| 5 |  Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 15 | |
| 9 |  Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 14 | |
| 10 |  Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 13 | |
| 11 |  Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 6 |
- Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
- NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 14 | 62.7% | 57.1% | -5.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 14 | 82.0% | 64.3% | -17.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 9 | 57.2% | 66.7% | +9.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 9 | 77.8% | 100.0% | +22.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 28 | 61.6% | 60.7% | -0.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 65.5% | 50.0% | -15.5 |
Settled Premiership matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premiership results
- 24 Oct · 18:00Bangor1-2LarneAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Dungannon Swifts1-3Cliftonville FCNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Crusaders FC0-5Coleraine FCNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:00Carrick Rangers1-1Limavady UnitedNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Portadown1-2LinfieldAway or Draw✓
- 20 Oct · 19:45Larne1-2LinfieldNo pick
- 17 Oct · 18:00Cliftonville FC1-2PortadownOver 2.5✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00Glentoran1-0Limavady UnitedOver 2.5✗
- 17 Oct · 15:00Carrick Rangers2-2LinfieldAway or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00Bangor0-0Dungannon SwiftsOver 2.5✗
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of Northern Ireland football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.76 goals per game over 74 matches: both teams scored in 51%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 14% drawn. Coleraine FC lead the table on 34 points from 13 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 76 Premiership tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.1% on average and landing 65.8%. Its best-calibrated Premiership market so far is over 2.5 (61.6% claimed against 60.7% hit over 28 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premiership tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.6% claimed against 60.7% hit over 28 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.