Premiership predictions
Northern Ireland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:45Coleraine FCvBallymena UnitedHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Carrick RangersvCliftonville FCNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Crusaders FCvLimavady UnitedOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00GlentoranvBangorOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00PortadownvLarneAway or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 18:00Dungannon SwiftsvLinfieldAway or DrawModerate
- 15 Sept · 19:45Ballymena UnitedvCarrick RangersNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45Crusaders FCvDungannon SwiftsNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45GlentoranvColeraine FCNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45LarnevCliftonville FCNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45Limavady UnitedvBangorNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 19:45PortadownvLinfieldNo pick yet
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coleraine FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Dungannon Swifts | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 12 | |
| 3 |  Linfield | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Cliftonville FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Carrick Rangers | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 | |
| 6 |  Crusaders FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Larne | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Glentoran | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Ballymena United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Bangor | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 | |
| 11 |  Limavady United | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Portadown | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
- Promotion - NIFL Premiership (Championship Group)
- NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group)
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 63.0% | 50.0% | -13.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 82.2% | 50.0% | -32.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.7% | 100.0% | +47.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 74.9% | 100.0% | +25.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 13 | 61.4% | 69.2% | +7.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled Premiership matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premiership results
- 8 Sept · 19:45Larne1-0BangorOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 18:00Coleraine FC4-1Crusaders FCOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Linfield1-0Carrick RangersHome Win✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Limavady United0-2Dungannon SwiftsNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Cliftonville FC3-1PortadownOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Bangor2-2Ballymena UnitedOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45Larne2-1GlentoranNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Limavady United0-2LinfieldNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Glentoran1-2Crusaders FCOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 15:00Cliftonville FC0-2Dungannon SwiftsHome Win✗
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of Northern Ireland football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.57 goals per game over 28 matches: both teams scored in 39%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 7% drawn. Coleraine FC lead the table on 13 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 28 Premiership tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.5% on average and landing 60.7%. Its best-calibrated Premiership market so far is over 2.5 (61.4% claimed against 69.2% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premiership tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.4% claimed against 69.2% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.