Championship predictions
Northern Ireland · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's Championship fixtures
- 11 Sept · 20:00Strabane AthleticvNewry City AFCNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Annagh UnitedvH&W WeldersOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00ArdsvRathfrilandOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Armagh CityvInstituteBTTSModerate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Ballinamallard UnitedvGlenavon FCNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Newington YouthvDundelaOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Queen's UniversityvLoughgallNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Warrenpoint TownvMoyola ParkNo pick yet
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newington Youth | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 16 | |
| 2 |  H&W Welders | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Queen's University | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Annagh United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Glenavon FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Newry City AFC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Ballinamallard United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Loughgall | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Ards | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | |
| 10 |  Warrenpoint Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Institute | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Moyola Park | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Dundela | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Armagh City | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 | |
| 16 |  Rathfriland | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 0 |
- Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
- NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)
Official Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 64.9% | 83.3% | +18.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 82.5% | 83.3% | +0.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 18 | 63.2% | 72.2% | +9.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Championship matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Championship results
- 5 Sept · 15:00Warrenpoint Town0-1Newington YouthNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Rathfriland0-2InstituteNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Queen's University6-0Strabane AthleticNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Moyola Park1-4H&W WeldersNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Loughgall1-6Ballinamallard UnitedOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Dundela3-2Glenavon FCOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45Newry City AFC2-2Armagh CityOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 19:45Annagh United2-1ArdsOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 15:00Institute1-3Newry City AFCNo pick
- 29 Aug · 15:00Ballinamallard United1-3Annagh UnitedOver 2.5✓
About Championship
Championship is the second tier of Northern Ireland football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.42 goals per game over 48 matches: both teams scored in 67%, 75% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 19% drawn. Newington Youth lead the table on 16 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Championship
Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 31 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.3% on average and landing 77.4%. Its best-calibrated Championship market so far is home or draw (82.5% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Championship tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.5% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.