Championship predictions
Northern Ireland · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Championship match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Championship in the Bet Finder.
This week's Championship fixtures
- 30 Oct · 19:45Newington YouthvH&W WeldersNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 19:45RathfrilandvStrabane AthleticNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00ArdsvNewry City AFCNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Ballinamallard UnitedvArmagh CityNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00DundelavWarrenpoint TownNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00InstitutevMoyola ParkNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00LoughgallvAnnagh UnitedNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Queen's UniversityvGlenavon FCNo pick yet
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Annagh United | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 33 | 16 | +17 | 28 | |
| 2 |  Newington Youth | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 26 | |
| 3 |  Glenavon FC | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 14 | +16 | 24 | |
| 4 |  Ballinamallard United | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Queen's University | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 20 | |
| 6 |  Institute | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 20 | |
| 7 |  Newry City AFC | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 | |
| 8 |  Warrenpoint Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 18 | |
| 9 |  Loughgall | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 17 | |
| 10 |  Ards | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 16 | |
| 11 |  H&W Welders | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 | |
| 12 |  Moyola Park | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 14 | |
| 13 |  Rathfriland | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 | |
| 14 |  Dundela | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 11 | |
| 15 |  Strabane Athletic | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Armagh City | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
- Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
- NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)
Official Championship table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Championship record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 11 | 64.4% | 45.5% | -18.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 82.6% | 70.0% | -12.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 54.4% | 40.0% | -14.4 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 76.5% | 75.0% | -1.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 39 | 63.9% | 59.0% | -4.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 5 | 66.6% | 80.0% | +13.4 |
Settled Championship matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Championship results
- 24 Oct · 15:00H&W Welders1-2LoughgallOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Armagh City1-1ArdsOver 2.5✗
- 24 Oct · 15:00Annagh United5-1Queen's UniversityNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Strabane Athletic0-1Ballinamallard UnitedNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Newry City AFC0-2Newington YouthNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Queen's University1-1Newry City AFCNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Dundela0-1RathfrilandOver 2.5✗
- 17 Oct · 15:00Ballinamallard United2-2Warrenpoint TownNo pick
- 17 Oct · 15:00Armagh City1-3Annagh UnitedOver 2.5✓
- 16 Oct · 19:45Strabane Athletic1-1LoughgallNo pick
About Championship
Championship is the second tier of Northern Ireland football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.13 goals per game over 101 matches: both teams scored in 58%, 58% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 37% with 25% drawn. Annagh United lead the table on 28 points from 13 games.
How the model handles Championship
Every Championship fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 74 Championship tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.7% on average and landing 59.5%. Its best-calibrated Championship market so far is over 2.5 (63.9% claimed against 59.0% hit over 39 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Championship predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Championship table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Championship market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Championship tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.9% claimed against 59.0% hit over 39 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Championship fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Championship by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.