J1 League predictions
Japan · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every J1 League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter J1 League in the Bet Finder.
This week's J1 League fixtures
- 19 Sept · 10:00Avispa FukuokavSanfrecce HiroshimaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 10:00Kawasaki FrontalevKashimaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 10:30Shimizu S-pulsevJEF United ChibaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 10:30UrawavTokyo VerdyNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 10:30V-varen NagasakivCerezo OsakaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 11:00FC TokyovNagoya GrampusNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 11:00Fagiano OkayamavKyoto SangaNo pick yet
- 19 Sept · 11:30Yokohama F. MarinosvMito HollyhockHome WinModerate
- 20 Sept · 9:00Gamba OsakavVissel KobeNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 9:00Machida ZelviavKashiwa ReysolNo pick yet
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Vissel Kobe | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 14 | |
| 5 |  FC Tokyo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Fagiano Okayama | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Kashima | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Cerezo Osaka | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Mito Hollyhock | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | |
| 12 |  Urawa | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | |
| 13 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 | |
| 14 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Gamba Osaka | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 6 | |
| 16 |  Nagoya Grampus | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Kyoto Sanga | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 | |
| 19 |  Tokyo Verdy | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 4 | |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 4 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
- Relegation - J2 League
Official J1 League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's J1 League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 80.1% | 100.0% | +19.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 51.3% | 33.3% | -18.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 76.4% | 66.7% | -9.7 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 60.5% | 80.0% | +19.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled J1 League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent J1 League results
- 13 Sept · 10:30Urawa1-2Fagiano OkayamaNo pick
- 13 Sept · 10:00Tokyo Verdy1-1JEF United ChibaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 11:00V-varen Nagasaki2-0Nagoya GrampusNo pick
- 12 Sept · 11:00Sanfrecce Hiroshima6-1Cerezo OsakaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 11:00Machida Zelvia1-1Yokohama F. MarinosNo pick
- 12 Sept · 11:00Gamba Osaka0-2FC TokyoNo pick
- 12 Sept · 10:30Shimizu S-pulse1-0Avispa FukuokaNo pick
- 12 Sept · 10:00Mito Hollyhock0-1Kawasaki FrontaleNo pick
- 11 Sept · 11:00Vissel Kobe2-1KashimaNo pick
- 11 Sept · 11:00Kyoto Sanga2-3Kashiwa ReysolNo pick
About J1 League
J1 League is the top flight of Japan football with 20 teams. The 2027 season has produced 2.97 goals per game over 70 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 21% drawn. Machida Zelvia lead the table on 17 points from 7 games.
How the model handles J1 League
Every J1 League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 12 J1 League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.8% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated J1 League market so far is over 2.5 (60.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these J1 League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the J1 League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which J1 League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled J1 League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are J1 League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter J1 League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.