J1 League predictions
Japan · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 30 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every J1 League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter J1 League in the Bet Finder.
This week's J1 League fixtures
- 1 Nov · 4:00Yokohama F. MarinosvKawasaki FrontaleNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 5:00JEF United ChibavAvispa FukuokaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 5:00V-varen NagasakivTokyo VerdyNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 7:00Machida ZelviavGamba OsakaHome or DrawModerate
- 7 Nov · 4:00Shimizu S-pulsevTokyo VerdyNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 5:00Nagoya GrampusvKyoto SangaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 5:00Yokohama F. MarinosvFagiano OkayamaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 6:00Avispa FukuokavV-varen NagasakiNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 6:00FC TokyovKashimaNo pick yet
- 7 Nov · 7:00Kashiwa ReysolvKawasaki FrontaleNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 5:00Machida ZelviavSanfrecce HiroshimaNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 5:00Vissel KobevUrawaNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 6:00Gamba OsakavCerezo OsakaNo pick yet
- 8 Nov · 8:00JEF United ChibavMito HollyhockNo pick yet
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 27 | |
| 2 |  FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 27 | |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 10 | +19 | 26 | |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 25 | |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 23 | |
| 6 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 22 | |
| 7 |  Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 23 | -2 | 21 | |
| 8 |  Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 20 | |
| 9 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 18 | |
| 10 |  Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 16 | |
| 11 |  Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 14 | |
| 12 |  Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 14 | |
| 13 |  Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 14 | |
| 14 |  V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 | |
| 15 |  Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 | |
| 16 |  Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 10 | |
| 17 |  Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 | |
| 18 |  Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 | |
| 19 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 7 | |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 7 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
- Relegation - J2 League
Official J1 League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.
This season in numbers
The model's J1 League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 5 | 60.7% | 80.0% | +19.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 81.9% | 83.3% | +1.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 53.8% | 42.9% | -10.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 78.2% | 85.7% | +7.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 8 | 60.0% | 87.5% | +27.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled J1 League matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent J1 League results
- 31 Oct · 7:00Kashiwa Reysol4-0UrawaNo pick
- 31 Oct · 6:00Vissel Kobe3-1Nagoya GrampusHome or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 6:00Kashima4-1Cerezo OsakaHome or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 5:00Fagiano Okayama0-4FC TokyoAway or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 5:00Mito Hollyhock0-3Sanfrecce HiroshimaAway or Draw✓
- 31 Oct · 5:00Kyoto Sanga2-0Shimizu S-pulseNo pick
- 25 Oct · 7:00Kawasaki Frontale2-1Fagiano OkayamaNo pick
- 25 Oct · 7:00FC Tokyo6-0Mito HollyhockNo pick
- 25 Oct · 6:00Urawa1-0V-varen NagasakiNo pick
- 25 Oct · 6:00Cerezo Osaka2-2JEF United ChibaNo pick
About J1 League
J1 League is the top flight of Japan football with 20 teams. The 2027 season has produced 3.01 goals per game over 126 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 59% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 45% with 23% drawn. Machida Zelvia lead the table on 27 points from 12 games.
How the model handles J1 League
Every J1 League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 33 J1 League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 66.6% on average and landing 75.8%. Its best-calibrated J1 League market so far is home or draw (81.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these J1 League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the J1 League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which J1 League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled J1 League tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 81.9% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are J1 League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter J1 League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.