Primera Division predictions
Guatemala · top flight · table updated 3 Jun
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera Division fixtures
No Primera Division fixtures in the next 7 days.
Primera Division table
Group A
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Suchitepéquez | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 31 | 17 | +14 | 37 | |
| 2 |  Nueva Concepción | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 32 | |
| 3 |  Quiché | 18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 31 | |
| 4 |  Coatepecano IB | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 29 | |
| 5 |  Iztapa | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 27 | |
| 6 |  Democracia | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 26 | |
| 7 |  San Pedro | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 23 | |
| 8 |  Juventud Copalera | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 23 | |
| 9 |  La Libertad | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 | |
| 10 |  Pajapita | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 12 | 55 | -43 | 8 |
Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suchitepéquez | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 31 | |
| 2 | San Pedro | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 30 | |
| 3 | Democracia | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 28 | |
| 4 | Iztapa | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 27 | |
| 5 | La Libertad | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 26 | |
| 6 | Nueva Concepción | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 26 | |
| 7 | Coatepecano IB | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 24 | |
| 8 | Quiché | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 23 | |
| 9 | Juventud Copalera | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 18 | |
| 10 | Pajapita | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 16 |
- Final Series
- Final Series Play-offs
Official Primera Division table via API-Sports · updated 2025-06-03.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera Division record
Not enough settled Primera Division tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Primera Division results
- 1 Jun · 0:00Aurora1-0SacachispasNo pick
- 25 May · 18:00Mictlán2-2AuroraNo pick
- 17 May · 22:30Aurora2-0MictlánNo pick
- 11 May · 18:00Mictlán3-0ChiquimulillaNo pick
- 10 May · 22:00Universidad San Carlos0-1AuroraNo pick
- 4 May · 18:00Aurora0-0Universidad San CarlosNo pick
- 4 May · 2:00Chiquimulilla3-2MictlánNo pick
- 27 Apr · 18:00Mictlán1-1SacachispasNo pick
- 27 Apr · 18:00Nueva Concepción0-3AuroraNo pick
- 27 Apr · 2:00Suchitepéquez1-2ChiquimulillaNo pick
About Primera Division
Primera Division is the top flight of Guatemala football played across 2 groups. The 2024/25 season has produced 2.74 goals per game over 371 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 62% with 22% drawn. The table is published as Group A, Group B.
How the model handles Primera Division
Every Primera Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Primera Division tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera Division market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Primera Division tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Primera Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.