Liga Nacional predictions
Guatemala · second tier · 12 teams · table updated 25 May
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Nacional in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Nacional fixtures
- 25 Oct · 19:00Cobán ImperialvMarquenseHome or DrawModerate
- 25 Oct · 21:10Deportivo San PedrovMalacatecoNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 23:30SuchitepéquezvAuroraHome or DrawModerate
- 28 Oct · 21:00Cobán ImperialvSuchitepéquezHome or DrawModerate
- 29 Oct · 0:00MalacatecovAuroraNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 2:00MunicipalvComunicacionesNo pick yet
- 29 Oct · 17:00MixcovXelajúNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 0:00Antigua GFCvDeportivo San PedroNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 2:10MarquensevGuastatoyaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:00AuroravAntigua GFCNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:00Deportivo San PedrovMunicipalNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 23:00GuastatoyavCobán ImperialNo pick yet
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 39 | |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 38 | |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 | |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 35 | |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 34 | |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 32 | |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 31 | |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 30 | |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 27 | |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 | |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 19 |
- Playoffs
Official Liga Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-05-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Nacional record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 34 | 62.6% | 61.8% | -0.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 51 | 84.2% | 86.3% | +2.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 59.4% | 100.0% | +40.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Nacional matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Nacional results
- 25 Oct · 2:10Guastatoya1-3MixcoHome or Draw✗
- 25 Oct · 1:00Comunicaciones1-0Antigua GFCNo pick
- 24 Oct · 21:00Xelajú1-0MunicipalNo pick
- 21 Oct · 22:00Mixco0-0MunicipalNo pick
- 21 Oct · 17:00Malacateco1-0ComunicacionesNo pick
- 20 Oct · 2:00Antigua GFC3-0XelajúHome or Draw✓
- 19 Oct · 3:10Marquense2-1SuchitepéquezHome or Draw✓
- 19 Oct · 1:00Municipal1-1GuastatoyaHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 22:00Mixco3-1Cobán ImperialHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 18:30Aurora3-1Deportivo San PedroNo pick
About Liga Nacional
Liga Nacional is the second tier of Guatemala football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.73 goals per game over 93 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 62% with 22% drawn. Xelajú lead the table on 39 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Liga Nacional
Every Liga Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 88 Liga Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.0% on average and landing 77.3%. Its best-calibrated Liga Nacional market so far is home win (62.6% claimed against 61.8% hit over 34 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Nacional predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Nacional table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Nacional market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Nacional tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 62.6% claimed against 61.8% hit over 34 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Nacional fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.