Liga Nacional predictions
Guatemala · second tier · 12 teams · table updated 25 May
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Nacional in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Nacional fixtures
- 10 Sept · 22:00AuroravMunicipalNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 1:00MalacatecovAntigua GFCNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 3:00XelajúvCobán ImperialHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 3:00MarquensevDeportivo San PedroNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00MixcovAuroraHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 20:00Cobán ImperialvComunicacionesNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 0:00GuastatoyavXelajúNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 2:00MunicipalvMalacatecoNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 2:00Antigua GFCvSuchitepéquezNo pick yet
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 19 | +15 | 39 | |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 38 | |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 26 | +4 | 36 | |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 35 | |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 | 29 | +5 | 34 | |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 32 | |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 21 | +8 | 31 | |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 30 | |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 27 | |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 22 | |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 20 | |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 19 |
- Playoffs
Official Liga Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-05-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Nacional record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 16 | 62.6% | 81.3% | +18.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 27 | 83.9% | 81.5% | -2.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Nacional matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Nacional results
- 7 Sept · 0:00Municipal0-0Deportivo San PedroNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00Cobán Imperial0-1GuastatoyaHome or Draw✗
- 6 Sept · 4:00Marquense0-4XelajúHome or Draw✗
- 6 Sept · 2:00Malacateco2-0SuchitepéquezHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 22:00Mixco1-1ComunicacionesNo pick
- 5 Sept · 2:00Antigua GFC2-1AuroraHome or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 2:00Xelajú4-1MixcoHome or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 0:00Aurora1-0MalacatecoHome or Draw✓
- 30 Aug · 22:00Deportivo San Pedro4-3Antigua GFCNo pick
- 30 Aug · 2:00Comunicaciones0-1MunicipalNo pick
About Liga Nacional
Liga Nacional is the second tier of Guatemala football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.78 goals per game over 41 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 49% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 68% with 12% drawn. Xelajú lead the table on 39 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Liga Nacional
Every Liga Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 43 Liga Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 76.0% on average and landing 81.4%. Its best-calibrated Liga Nacional market so far is home or draw (83.9% claimed against 81.5% hit over 27 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Nacional predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Nacional table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Nacional market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.9% claimed against 81.5% hit over 27 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Nacional fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.