Erovnuli Liga predictions
Georgia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Erovnuli Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Erovnuli Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Erovnuli Liga fixtures
- 10 Sept · 16:00Dinamo TbilisivMeshakhteHome or DrawSolid
- 10 Sept · 18:00GagravTorpedo KutaisiNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 15:00DilavDinamo BatumiNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 17:00FC Iberia 1999vSpaeriNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 13:00MeshakhtevRustaviNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 16:00Torpedo KutaisivSamguraliNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 18:00Dinamo TbilisivGagraNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 16:00FC Iberia 1999vDilaNo pick yet
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rustavi | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 20 | +10 | 42 | |
| 2 |  Dinamo Batumi | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 40 | |
| 3 |  Dinamo Tbilisi | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 38 | |
| 4 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 37 | |
| 5 |  Dila | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 33 | |
| 6 |  Torpedo Kutaisi | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 28 | +9 | 32 | |
| 7 |  Samgurali | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Gagra | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 27 | |
| 9 |  Spaeri | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 24 | |
| 10 |  Meshakhte | 24 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 15 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2
Official Erovnuli Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Erovnuli Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 3 | 63.0% | 33.3% | -29.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 82.7% | 50.0% | -32.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 11 | 59.9% | 63.6% | +3.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled Erovnuli Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Erovnuli Liga results
- 9 Sept · 18:00Dinamo Batumi2-0FC Iberia 1999Over 2.5✗
- 9 Sept · 16:00Spaeri1-1RustaviNo pick
- 9 Sept · 16:00Samgurali1-3DilaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 17:00Torpedo Kutaisi1-1Dinamo TbilisiNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:00FC Iberia 19992-1SamguraliNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Dila1-0GagraNo pick
- 5 Sept · 13:00Meshakhte2-2SpaeriOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 17:00Rustavi0-1Dinamo BatumiOver 2.5✗
- 31 Aug · 18:00Dinamo Tbilisi2-1DilaOver 2.5✓
- 31 Aug · 16:00Torpedo Kutaisi0-2MeshakhteHome Win✗
About Erovnuli Liga
Erovnuli Liga is the top flight of Georgia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.62 goals per game over 121 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 29% drawn. Rustavi lead the table on 42 points from 24 games.
How the model handles Erovnuli Liga
Every Erovnuli Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 19 Erovnuli Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 65.4% on average and landing 52.6%. Its best-calibrated Erovnuli Liga market so far is over 2.5 (59.9% claimed against 63.6% hit over 11 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Erovnuli Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Erovnuli Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Erovnuli Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Erovnuli Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.9% claimed against 63.6% hit over 11 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Erovnuli Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Erovnuli Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.