Ykkönen predictions
Finland · second tier · 12 teams · table updated 19 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Ykkönen match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Ykkönen in the Bet Finder.
This week's Ykkönen fixtures
No Ykkönen fixtures in the next 7 days.
Ykkönen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampere United | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 60 | 27 | +33 | 54 | |
| 2 |  Rops | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 48 | |
| 3 |  SalPa | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 59 | 47 | +12 | 48 | |
| 4 |  VJS | 27 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 46 | |
| 5 |  OLS | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 41 | |
| 6 |  FC jazz | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 40 | |
| 7 |  PKKU | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 38 | |
| 8 |  JJK | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 62 | 61 | +1 | 34 | |
| 9 |  Inter Turku II | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 30 | |
| 10 |  TPV | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 30 | |
| 11 |  KPV-j | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 28 | 80 | -52 | 19 | |
| 12 |  KuPS Akatemia | 27 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 16 |
Official Ykkönen table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-19.
This season in numbers
The model's Ykkönen record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 61.6% | 83.3% | +21.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 3 | 82.3% | 100.0% | +17.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.6% | 0.0% | -50.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 73.4% | 0.0% | -73.4 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 36 | 61.6% | 77.8% | +16.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 63.9% | 50.0% | -13.9 |
Settled Ykkönen matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Ykkönen results
- 18 Oct · 13:00VJS2-1TPVNo pick
- 18 Oct · 13:00Tampere United1-1RopsNo pick
- 18 Oct · 13:00SalPa3-2OLSOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 13:00KPV-j1-1Inter Turku IIOver 2.5✗
- 18 Oct · 13:00JJK6-2PKKUOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 13:00FC jazz2-2KuPS AkatemiaOver 2.5✓
- 12 Oct · 16:30Inter Turku II6-1FC jazzOver 2.5✓
- 10 Oct · 15:00TPV4-0KPV-jOver 2.5✓
- 10 Oct · 14:00Rops6-1JJKOver 2.5✓
- 10 Oct · 13:00OLS0-1Tampere UnitedNo pick
About Ykkönen
Ykkönen is the second tier of Finland football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.62 goals per game over 162 matches: both teams scored in 62%, 67% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 26% drawn. Tampere United lead the table on 54 points from 27 games.
How the model handles Ykkönen
Every Ykkönen fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 51 Ykkönen tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.0% on average and landing 74.5%. Its best-calibrated Ykkönen market so far is over 2.5 (61.6% claimed against 77.8% hit over 36 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Ykkönen predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Ykkönen table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Ykkönen market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Ykkönen tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.6% claimed against 77.8% hit over 36 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Ykkönen fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Ykkönen by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.