Veikkausliiga predictions
Finland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Veikkausliiga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Veikkausliiga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Veikkausliiga fixtures
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 | |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 | |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 37 | |
| 4 |  Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 | |
| 5 |  AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 | |
| 6 |  VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 | |
| 7 |  Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 | |
| 9 |  Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 | |
| 10 |  SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 | |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 | |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
- Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
- Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)
Official Veikkausliiga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Veikkausliiga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 66.0% | 50.0% | -16.0 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 83.7% | 75.0% | -8.7 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 50.8% | 100.0% | +49.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% | +23.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 13 | 63.9% | 46.2% | -17.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.6% | 50.0% | -14.6 |
Settled Veikkausliiga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Veikkausliiga results
- 9 Sept · 16:00HJK Helsinki2-1Inter TurkuNo pick
- 8 Sept · 17:00Gnistan1-1KuPSNo pick
- 8 Sept · 16:00VPS1-0AC OuluNo pick
- 8 Sept · 16:00Turku PS0-0SJKHome Win✗
- 8 Sept · 16:00Lahti2-1MariehamnNo pick
- 8 Sept · 16:00Ilves2-0FF JaroOver 2.5✗
- 31 Aug · 17:00VPS0-1LahtiNo pick
- 31 Aug · 17:00Mariehamn2-0FF JaroNo pick
- 31 Aug · 17:00Inter Turku1-0KuPSNo pick
- 31 Aug · 17:00Ilves1-2HJK HelsinkiNo pick
About Veikkausliiga
Veikkausliiga is the top flight of Finland football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.55 goals per game over 138 matches: both teams scored in 49%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 27% drawn. KuPS lead the table on 43 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Veikkausliiga
Every Veikkausliiga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 33 Veikkausliiga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.2% on average and landing 57.6%. Its best-calibrated Veikkausliiga market so far is home or draw (83.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Veikkausliiga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Veikkausliiga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Veikkausliiga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Veikkausliiga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.7% claimed against 75.0% hit over 8 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Veikkausliiga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Veikkausliiga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.