Liga Pro predictions
Ecuador · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 15 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Pro match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Pro in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Pro fixtures
- 20 Sept · 21:00AucasvMacaraNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00Barcelona SCvIndependiente del ValleNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00LDU de QuitovUniversidad CatolicaNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00Deportivo CuencavMushuc Runa SCNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00Manta FCvOrense SCNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00Tecnico UniversitariovDelfin SCNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00EmelecvLibertadNo pick yet
- 20 Sept · 21:00Guayaquil City FCvLeones del NorteNo pick yet
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 | |
| 2 |  Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 27 | +24 | 51 | |
| 3 |  Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 | |
| 4 |  Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 | |
| 5 |  LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 | |
| 6 |  Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 | |
| 7 |  Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 | |
| 8 |  Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 | |
| 9 |  Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 | |
| 10 |  Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 | |
| 11 |  Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 36(-3) | |
| 12 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 | |
| 13 |  Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 | |
| 14 |  Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 | |
| 15 |  Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 | |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
Official Liga Pro table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Emelec · updated 2026-09-15.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Pro record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 16 | 65.7% | 68.8% | +3.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 29 | 83.9% | 75.9% | -8.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 58.8% | 75.0% | +16.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Pro matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Pro results
- 15 Sept · 1:00Universidad Catolica2-1Orense SCHome or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 0:00Libertad2-3Independiente del ValleAway or Draw✓
- 14 Sept · 0:00Barcelona SC1-1Delfin SCHome or Draw✓
- 13 Sept · 21:30Macara1-0EmelecNo pick
- 13 Sept · 19:00Leones del Norte0-1Tecnico UniversitarioHome or Draw✗
- 13 Sept · 1:00LDU de Quito1-1Deportivo CuencaHome or Draw✓
- 12 Sept · 22:30Guayaquil City FC3-1Mushuc Runa SCDraw✗
- 12 Sept · 20:00Manta FC0-0AucasNo pick
- 8 Sept · 1:00Orense SC4-3Guayaquil City FCHome or Draw✓
- 8 Sept · 1:00Mushuc Runa SC1-1Leones del NorteNo pick
About Liga Pro
Liga Pro is the top flight of Ecuador football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.26 goals per game over 240 matches: both teams scored in 46%, 40% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 24% drawn. Independiente del Valle lead the table on 74 points from 30 games. Emelec (-3) has had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles Liga Pro
Every Liga Pro fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 49 Liga Pro tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 75.9% on average and landing 73.5%. Its best-calibrated Liga Pro market so far is home win (65.7% claimed against 68.8% hit over 16 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Pro predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Pro table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Pro market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Pro tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.7% claimed against 68.8% hit over 16 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Pro fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Pro by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.