How are these Liga Pro predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Liga Pro table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Liga Pro market is the model most reliable in?

On settled Liga Pro tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.0% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.

How far ahead are Liga Pro fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page.

Liga Pro predictions

Ecuador · top flight · table updated 30 Oct

Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Pro match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Pro in the Bet Finder.

This week's Liga Pro fixtures

Liga Pro table

Liga Pro: Regular season

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	30	24	2	4	73	33	+40	74
2	Universidad Catolica	30	14	9	7	51	27	+24	51
3	Macara	30	15	6	9	41	33	+8	51
4	Aucas	30	14	8	8	33	28	+5	50
5	LDU de Quito	30	13	7	10	31	24	+7	46
6	Barcelona SC	30	11	11	8	32	25	+7	44
7	Libertad	30	11	8	11	33	34	-1	41
8	Leones del Norte	30	10	9	11	31	32	-1	39
9	Guayaquil City FC	30	10	9	11	33	36	-3	39
10	Emelec	30	10	9	11	25	34	-9	39
11	Mushuc Runa SC	30	9	11	10	35	38	-3	38
12	Deportivo Cuenca	30	10	6	14	25	37	-12	36
13	Orense SC	30	9	6	15	36	47	-11	33
14	Tecnico Universitario	30	10	2	18	28	42	-14	32
15	Delfin SC	30	7	7	16	19	31	-12	28
16	Manta FC	30	5	6	19	17	42	-25	21

Liga Pro: Championship Group

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	33	25	3	5	75	35	+40	78
2	Macara	34	19	6	9	47	35	+12	63
3	Universidad Catolica	34	14	11	9	53	31	+22	53
4	LDU de Quito	34	15	8	11	37	29	+8	53
5	Aucas	34	14	9	11	36	37	-1	51
6	Barcelona SC	33	12	12	9	38	28	+10	48

Liga Pro: Placement Group

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Libertad	34	14	8	12	43	39	+4	50
8	Guayaquil City FC	34	12	10	12	38	43	-5	46
9	Leones del Norte	34	11	10	13	37	40	-3	43
10	Emelec	34	11	9	14	31	41	-10	42

Liga Pro: Relegation Group

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
11	Deportivo Cuenca	34	12	8	14	30	39	-9	44
12	Mushuc Runa SC	34	9	13	12	39	46	-7	40
13	Orense SC	34	10	8	16	42	50	-8	38
14	Tecnico Universitario	34	11	3	20	33	46	-13	36
15	Delfin SC	34	9	8	17	27	40	-13	35
16	Manta FC	34	7	6	21	22	49	-27	27

Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Official Liga Pro table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-30.

This season in numbers

2.32

goals per game (274 matches)

48%

both teams scored

42%

over 2.5 goals

67%

over 1.5 goals

19%

over 3.5 goals

48%

home wins

24%

draws

29%

away wins

The model's Liga Pro record

Market	Tips	Claimed	Hit	Gap
Home win≥ 57%	17	65.0%	64.7%	-0.3
Home or draw≥ 80%	37	83.4%	70.3%	-13.1
Away win≥ 50%	0	—	—	—
Away or draw≥ 73%	0	—	—	—
Over 2.5≥ 57%	4	58.8%	75.0%	+16.2
BTTS≥ 63%	0	—	—	—

Settled Liga Pro matches since 3 Augwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.

Recent Liga Pro results

About Liga Pro

Liga Pro is the top flight of Ecuador football, played across 4 groups. The 2026 season has produced 2.32 goals per game over 274 matches: both teams scored in 48%, 42% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 24% drawn. The table is published as Liga Pro: Regular season, Liga Pro: Championship Group, Liga Pro: Placement Group, Liga Pro: Relegation Group.

How the model handles Liga Pro

Every Liga Pro fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 3 Aug, the model has settled 58 Liga Pro tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 76.3% on average and landing 69.0%. Its best-calibrated Liga Pro market so far is home win (65.0% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Liga Pro predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Liga Pro table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Liga Pro market is the model most reliable in?: On settled Liga Pro tips since 3 Aug, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.0% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
How far ahead are Liga Pro fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Liga Pro by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.