Primera División predictions
Costa Rica · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Saprissa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 18 | |
| 2 |  CS Cartagines | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 15 | |
| 3 |  Inter San Carlos | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Sporting San Jose | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 | |
| 5 |  LD Alajuelense | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 11 | |
| 6 |  San Carlos | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Perez Zeledon | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Puntarenas FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 | |
| 9 |  CS Herediano | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Escorpiones Belén | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 66.8% | 55.6% | -11.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 84.6% | 70.0% | -14.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 61.8% | 80.0% | +18.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 7 Sept · 2:00San Carlos1-0Sporting San JoseNo pick
- 6 Sept · 23:00Puntarenas FC1-3CS CartaginesNo pick
- 6 Sept · 3:00LD Alajuelense0-2Deportivo SaprissaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:00CS Herediano2-3Perez ZeledonHome or Draw✗
- 5 Sept · 3:00Escorpiones Belén0-2Inter San CarlosNo pick
- 31 Aug · 1:00Deportivo Saprissa2-1Escorpiones BelénOver 2.5✓
- 30 Aug · 23:00San Carlos1-2Puntarenas FCNo pick
- 30 Aug · 18:00CS Cartagines1-0CS HeredianoNo pick
- 30 Aug · 3:00Perez Zeledon1-1LD AlajuelenseNo pick
- 29 Aug · 3:00Sporting San Jose2-0Inter San CarlosNo pick
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Costa Rica football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.44 goals per game over 34 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 41% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 18% drawn. Deportivo Saprissa lead the table on 18 points from 7 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 24 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.2% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (66.8% claimed against 55.6% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 66.8% claimed against 55.6% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.