Primera División predictions
Costa Rica · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
- 25 Oct · 22:00San CarlosvDeportivo SaprissaNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 0:00LD AlajuelensevPerez ZeledonHome or DrawStrong
- 31 Oct · 0:00Inter San CarlosvEscorpiones BelénNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 2:00Perez ZeledonvPuntarenas FCNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 2:00Sporting San JosevCS HeredianoNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:00CS CartaginesvSan CarlosNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 22:00Deportivo SaprissavLD AlajuelenseNo pick yet
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Saprissa | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 24 | |
| 2 |  CS Cartagines | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 17 | +7 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Sporting San Jose | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 24 | |
| 4 |  LD Alajuelense | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 | |
| 5 |  San Carlos | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 19 | |
| 6 |  Puntarenas FC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 18 | |
| 7 |  Inter San Carlos | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 18 | |
| 8 |  CS Herediano | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 | |
| 9 |  Escorpiones Belén | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 10 | |
| 10 |  Perez Zeledon | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 9 |
- Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 13 | 62.9% | 53.8% | -9.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 83.6% | 66.7% | -16.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 61.1% | 57.1% | -4.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 25 Oct · 2:00CS Herediano3-1CS CartaginesNo pick
- 25 Oct · 1:00Puntarenas FC3-1Inter San CarlosNo pick
- 24 Oct · 3:00Escorpiones Belén2-4Sporting San JoseNo pick
- 20 Oct · 3:00Escorpiones Belén1-2Puntarenas FCOver 2.5✓
- 20 Oct · 1:00Sporting San Jose3-3San CarlosNo pick
- 18 Oct · 23:00Perez Zeledon0-3CS HeredianoNo pick
- 18 Oct · 18:00CS Cartagines1-0Deportivo SaprissaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 3:00Inter San Carlos2-3LD AlajuelenseNo pick
- 16 Oct · 3:00Deportivo Saprissa6-0Sporting San JoseHome or Draw✓
- 15 Oct · 3:00LD Alajuelense1-1CS HeredianoHome Win✗
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Costa Rica football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.79 goals per game over 62 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 48% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 18% drawn. Deportivo Saprissa lead the table on 24 points from 12 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 32 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 70.3% on average and landing 59.4%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is over 2.5 (61.1% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 61.1% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.