Liga de Ascenso predictions
Costa Rica · second tier · 14 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga de Ascenso match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga de Ascenso in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga de Ascenso fixtures
- 10 Sept · 20:00Cariari PococivSanta AnaOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 21:00CS UruguayvAserri FCNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:00Aserri FCvAD CofutpaOver 2.5Moderate
- 13 Sept · 3:00Municipal GreciavADR JicaralNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00Santa AnavGuadalupe FCOver 2.5Moderate
- 13 Sept · 18:00Santa Cruz FCvAD SarchíNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 20:00Cariari PococivAD CarmelitaOver 2.5Moderate
- 13 Sept · 21:00Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCvFutbol Consultants MoraviaNo pick yet
Liga de Ascenso table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Aserri FC | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 | |
| 2 |  ADR Jicaral | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Santa Ana | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Quepos Cambute | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Municipal Grecia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Cariari Pococi | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 | |
| 8 |  AD Sarchí | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | |
| 9 |  CS Uruguay | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 10 |  AD Carmelita | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 | |
| 11 |  Guadalupe FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Santa Cruz FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 | |
| 13 |  Futbol Consultants Moravia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 | |
| 14 |  AD Cofutpa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 1 |
Official Liga de Ascenso table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga de Ascenso record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 62.2% | 83.3% | +21.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 83.9% | 100.0% | +16.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 14 | 60.7% | 64.3% | +3.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga de Ascenso matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga de Ascenso results
- 8 Sept · 2:00AD Cofutpa0-0Municipal GreciaNo pick
- 7 Sept · 21:30AD Carmelita1-2Pitbulls Santa Barbara FCNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00ADR Jicaral2-0Quepos CambuteNo pick
- 6 Sept · 18:00AD Sarchí2-1Aserri FCOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 18:00Aserri FC1-1Cariari PocociNo pick
- 6 Sept · 3:00Guadalupe FC0-1CS UruguayOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 21:00Futbol Consultants Moravia1-2Santa AnaOver 2.5✓
- 1 Sept · 2:00Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC2-0Santa AnaOver 2.5✗
- 30 Aug · 20:00Santa Cruz FC1-2Aserri FCNo pick
- 30 Aug · 19:00Quepos Cambute3-0AD CofutpaHome Win✓
About Liga de Ascenso
Liga de Ascenso is the second tier of Costa Rica football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.59 goals per game over 39 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 23% drawn. Aserri FC lead the table on 14 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Liga de Ascenso
Every Liga de Ascenso fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 24 Liga de Ascenso tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.9% on average and landing 75.0%. Its best-calibrated Liga de Ascenso market so far is over 2.5 (60.7% claimed against 64.3% hit over 14 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga de Ascenso predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga de Ascenso table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga de Ascenso market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga de Ascenso tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 60.7% claimed against 64.3% hit over 14 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga de Ascenso fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga de Ascenso by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.