League One predictions
China · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every League One match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter League One in the Bet Finder.
This week's League One fixtures
- 31 Oct · 6:30Changchun YataivNantong ZhiyunNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Heilongjiang Lava SpringvShenzhen JuniorsNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Guangxi HengchenvWuxi WugouNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Meizhou KejiavShaanxi UnionNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Nanjing CityvDalian HuayiNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Hebei KungfuvGuangzhou E-PowerNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Suzhou DongwuvYanbian LongdingNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 6:30Dongguan UnitedvNingbo ProfessionalNo pick yet
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guangzhou E-Power | 27 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 26 | +29 | 60 | |
| 2 |  Nantong Zhiyun | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 37 | 20 | +17 | 54 | |
| 3 |  Guangxi Hengchen | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 47 | |
| 4 |  Shenzhen Juniors | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 46 | |
| 5 |  Shaanxi Union | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 28 | +23 | 45 | |
| 6 |  Hebei Kungfu | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 40 | |
| 7 |  Yanbian Longding | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 39 | |
| 8 |  Wuxi Wugou | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 36 | |
| 9 |  Changchun Yatai | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 35(-4) | |
| 10 |  Dalian Huayi | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 34 | |
| 11 |  Ningbo Professional | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 31(-3) | |
| 12 |  Suzhou Dongwu | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28(-3) | |
| 13 |  Nanjing City | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 28 | |
| 14 |  Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 27 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 27 | |
| 15 |  Meizhou Kejia | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 16(-9) | |
| 16 |  Dongguan United | 28 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 28 | 64 | -36 | 16 |
- Promotion
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official League One table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Changchun Yatai, Ningbo Professional, Suzhou Dongwu, Meizhou Kejia · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's League One record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 62.6% | 75.0% | +12.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 82.5% | 100.0% | +17.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 51.7% | 50.0% | -1.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 76.1% | 50.0% | -26.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.6% | 66.7% | +6.1 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled League One matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent League One results
- 25 Oct · 11:30Guangzhou E-Power1-1Suzhou DongwuNo pick
- 25 Oct · 11:30Heilongjiang Lava Spring1-2Yanbian LongdingNo pick
- 25 Oct · 11:00Wuxi Wugou2-0Shaanxi UnionNo pick
- 24 Oct · 12:30Hebei Kungfu3-2Ningbo ProfessionalNo pick
- 24 Oct · 12:30Nantong Zhiyun1-0Shenzhen JuniorsNo pick
- 24 Oct · 12:30Dongguan United2-5Nanjing CityNo pick
- 24 Oct · 8:30Changchun Yatai4-1Meizhou KejiaOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 8:00Dalian Huayi3-2Guangxi HengchenNo pick
- 18 Oct · 12:30Nanjing City1-0Hebei KungfuNo pick
- 18 Oct · 12:30Meizhou Kejia0-1Nantong ZhiyunOver 2.5✗
About League One
League One is the second tier of China football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.69 goals per game over 224 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 42% with 29% drawn. Guangzhou E-Power lead the table on 60 points from 27 games. Changchun Yatai (-4), Ningbo Professional (-3), Suzhou Dongwu (-3), Meizhou Kejia (-9) have had points deducted, which the table above reflects.
How the model handles League One
Every League One fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 16 League One tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 68.8% on average and landing 75.0%. Its best-calibrated League One market so far is home or draw (82.5% claimed against 100.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these League One predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the League One table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which League One market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled League One tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.5% claimed against 100.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are League One fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter League One by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.