First League predictions
Bulgaria · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every First League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First League in the Bet Finder.
This week's First League fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:00Cherno More VarnavLokomotiv SofiaHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 16:00Botev PlovdivvLokomotiv PlovdivNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 16:00Botev VratsavLevski SofiaAway or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 16:00LudogoretsvSeptemvri SofiaHome or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 16:00Slavia SofiavSpartak VarnaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:00CSKA 1948vDunav RuseNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:15CSKA SofiavArda KardzhaliNo pick yet
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 24 | |
| 2 |  Ludogorets | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 20 | |
| 3 |  CSKA Sofia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 17 | |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 | |
| 5 |  Arda Kardzhali | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 16 | |
| 6 |  Slavia Sofia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Botev Plovdiv | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | |
| 8 |  Spartak Varna | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Septemvri Sofia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Botev Vratsa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 7 | |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Cherno More Varna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Dunav Ruse | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
- Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)
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Official First League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's First League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 64.3% | 90.0% | +25.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 15 | 83.5% | 93.3% | +9.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 58.3% | 75.0% | +16.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 79.5% | 100.0% | +20.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 59.3% | 50.0% | -9.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled First League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent First League results
- 7 Sept · 18:30Dunav Ruse0-1Slavia SofiaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 19:15Lokomotiv Sofia1-2LudogoretsAway or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 17:00Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Cherno More VarnaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 19:15Levski Sofia1-0CSKA 1948No pick
- 5 Sept · 17:00Spartak Varna1-1CSKA SofiaNo pick
- 4 Sept · 19:15Arda Kardzhali2-3Botev PlovdivNo pick
- 4 Sept · 17:00Septemvri Sofia2-3Botev VratsaHome or Draw✗
- 2 Sept · 18:00Slavia Sofia1-2Levski SofiaAway or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 19:15Arda Kardzhali2-0Botev VratsaHome or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 17:00Dunav Ruse2-2Lokomotiv SofiaNo pick
About First League
First League is the top flight of Bulgaria football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.73 goals per game over 55 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 20% drawn. Levski Sofia lead the table on 24 points from 8 games.
How the model handles First League
Every First League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 37 First League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.5% on average and landing 86.5%. Its best-calibrated First League market so far is home or draw (83.5% claimed against 93.3% hit over 15 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled First League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 83.5% claimed against 93.3% hit over 15 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are First League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.