Birinci Dasta predictions
Azerbaijan · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 26 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Birinci Dasta match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Birinci Dasta in the Bet Finder.
This week's Birinci Dasta fixtures
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cəbrayıl | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Şahdağ | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 15 | |
| 3 |  MOIK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Səbail | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Karvan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Şimal | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 8 | |
| 7 |  Xankəndi FK | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 | |
| 8 |  Mingəçevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Zaqatala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Baku Sportinq | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 0 |
- Promotion - Premier League
- Promotion - Premier League (Promotion)
- I Liqa (Relegation)
- Relegation
Official Birinci Dasta table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-26.
This season in numbers
The model's Birinci Dasta record
Not enough settled Birinci Dasta tips since 3 Aug to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Birinci Dasta results
- 22 Oct · 12:00Şimal5-2Baku SportinqNo pick
- 22 Oct · 12:00MOIK3-1KarvanNo pick
- 22 Oct · 12:00Cəbrayıl7-0ZaqatalaNo pick
- 21 Oct · 12:00Şahdağ1-0SəbailNo pick
- 21 Oct · 12:00Xankəndi FK0-1MingəçevirNo pick
- 16 Oct · 12:00Karvan2-1CəbrayılNo pick
- 16 Oct · 12:00Baku Sportinq1-3MOIKNo pick
- 15 Oct · 12:00Zaqatala1-3SəbailNo pick
- 15 Oct · 12:00Mingəçevir1-4ŞimalNo pick
- 15 Oct · 12:00Xankəndi FK1-0ŞahdağNo pick
About Birinci Dasta
Birinci Dasta is the second tier of Azerbaijan football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.07 goals per game over 30 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 17% drawn. Cəbrayıl lead the table on 15 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Birinci Dasta
Every Birinci Dasta fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 169+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 3 Aug, and there are not yet enough settled Birinci Dasta tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Birinci Dasta predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Birinci Dasta table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Birinci Dasta market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Birinci Dasta tips since 3 Aug to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Birinci Dasta fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. The exact probabilities are on each fixture page. To filter Birinci Dasta by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.