Birinci Dasta predictions
Azerbaijan · second tier · 10 teams · table updated 14 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Birinci Dasta match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Birinci Dasta in the Bet Finder.
This week's Birinci Dasta fixtures
Birinci Dasta table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Şahdağ | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 | |
| 2 |  Cəbrayıl | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | |
| 3 |  Zaqatala | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | |
| 4 |  Səbail | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 | |
| 5 |  Karvan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 | |
| 6 |  Mingəçevir | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | |
| 7 |  Şimal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | |
| 8 |  Xankəndi FK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | |
| 9 |  MOIK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | |
| 10 |  Baku Sportinq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
- Promotion - Premier League
- Promotion - Premier League (Promotion)
- I Liqa (Relegation)
- Relegation
Official Birinci Dasta table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-14.
This season in numbers
The model's Birinci Dasta record
Not enough settled Birinci Dasta tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Birinci Dasta results
- 11 Sept · 13:30MOIK1-1ŞimalNo pick
- 10 Sept · 14:00Cəbrayıl2-1Xankəndi FKNo pick
- 10 Sept · 13:30Zaqatala3-0Baku SportinqNo pick
- 10 Sept · 13:30Səbail2-1MingəçevirNo pick
- 9 Sept · 13:30Şahdağ2-0KarvanNo pick
- 4 Sept · 14:00Şimal1-2CəbrayılNo pick
- 4 Sept · 14:00Mingəçevir2-2ZaqatalaNo pick
- 3 Sept · 14:00MOIK0-1ŞahdağNo pick
- 3 Sept · 14:00Xankəndi FK1-1SəbailNo pick
- 3 Sept · 14:00Baku Sportinq0-3KarvanNo pick
About Birinci Dasta
Birinci Dasta is the second tier of Azerbaijan football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.60 goals per game over 10 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 60% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 30% drawn. Şahdağ lead the table on 6 points from 2 games.
How the model handles Birinci Dasta
Every Birinci Dasta fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Birinci Dasta tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Birinci Dasta predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Birinci Dasta table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Birinci Dasta market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Birinci Dasta tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Birinci Dasta fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Birinci Dasta by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.