Bundesliga predictions
Austria · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
- 25 Oct · 13:30Sturm GrazvRiedHome or DrawModerate
- 25 Oct · 16:00Lask LinzvRed Bull SalzburgNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 18:30Grazer AKvTSV HartbergNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00SCR AltachvRiedNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 18:30Lask LinzvWSG WattensNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:30Red Bull SalzburgvAustria LustenauNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:30Wolfsberger ACvSturm GrazNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 16:00Austria ViennavRapid ViennaNo pick yet
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rapid Vienna | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 9 | +22 | 27 | |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 21 | |
| 3 |  Lask Linz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 19 | |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Ried | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 14 | |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 14 | |
| 7 |  WSG Wattens | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 | |
| 8 |  Grazer AK | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 10 | |
| 9 |  SCR Altach | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Austria Lustenau | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Austria Vienna | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 | |
| 12 |  Wolfsberger AC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 5 |
- Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
- Bundesliga (Relegation Group)
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 64.3% | 85.7% | +21.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 55.4% | 42.9% | -12.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 79.2% | 85.7% | +6.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 14 | 59.9% | 42.9% | -17.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 24 Oct · 18:30Rapid Vienna5-1Austria LustenauHome Win✓
- 24 Oct · 16:00WSG Wattens1-1Grazer AKAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 16:00TSV Hartberg1-0Wolfsberger ACOver 2.5✗
- 23 Oct · 18:30SCR Altach2-1Austria ViennaAway or Draw✗
- 18 Oct · 16:00Sturm Graz6-1Grazer AKOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 13:30Wolfsberger AC0-2WSG WattensNo pick
- 18 Oct · 13:30Red Bull Salzburg3-0SCR AltachHome or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 18:30Ried3-2Austria ViennaNo pick
- 17 Oct · 16:00Austria Lustenau0-4Lask LinzNo pick
- 16 Oct · 18:30Rapid Vienna3-1TSV HartbergNo pick
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Austria football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.16 goals per game over 58 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 54% with 19% drawn. Rapid Vienna lead the table on 27 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 42 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.0% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is away or draw (79.2% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 79.2% claimed against 85.7% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.