Bundesliga predictions
Austria · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 5 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Bundesliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Bundesliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Bundesliga fixtures
- 11 Sept · 18:30RiedvRed Bull SalzburgAway or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 16:00SCR AltachvGrazer AKAway or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 18:30Wolfsberger ACvRapid ViennaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:30Austria ViennavAustria LustenauNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:30WSG WattensvTSV HartbergNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00Sturm GrazvLask LinzNo pick yet
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lask Linz | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | +13 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Rapid Vienna | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Sturm Graz | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | |
| 5 |  WSG Wattens | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 6 |  TSV Hartberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 | |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 | |
| 9 |  Ried | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Grazer AK | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 4 | |
| 11 |  SCR Altach | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | |
| 12 |  Austria Vienna | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 3 |
- Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
- Bundesliga (Relegation Group)
Official Bundesliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-05.
This season in numbers
The model's Bundesliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% | +10.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 4 | 83.8% | 100.0% | +16.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 60.4% | 66.7% | +6.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% | +17.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 6 | 59.8% | 33.3% | -26.5 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Bundesliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Bundesliga results
- 2 Sept · 19:30Red Bull Salzburg5-1Rapid ViennaOver 2.5✓
- 2 Sept · 17:30Austria Vienna0-1WSG WattensNo pick
- 1 Sept · 18:30Wolfsberger AC1-3Lask LinzNo pick
- 30 Aug · 18:00Red Bull Salzburg4-1Austria ViennaHome Win✓
- 30 Aug · 16:00Rapid Vienna3-1Sturm GrazNo pick
- 30 Aug · 16:00TSV Hartberg3-2RiedNo pick
- 29 Aug · 18:30Lask Linz3-0SCR AltachHome or Draw✓
- 29 Aug · 16:00Grazer AK0-0Wolfsberger ACOver 2.5✗
- 28 Aug · 18:30Austria Lustenau0-4WSG WattensNo pick
- 22 Aug · 18:30Sturm Graz1-1Austria LustenauHome or Draw✓
About Bundesliga
Bundesliga is the top flight of Austria football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.93 goals per game over 30 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 57% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 53% with 17% drawn. Lask Linz lead the table on 15 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Bundesliga
Every Bundesliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 20 Bundesliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.0% on average and landing 70.0%. Its best-calibrated Bundesliga market so far is over 2.5 (59.8% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Bundesliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Bundesliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Bundesliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Bundesliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 59.8% claimed against 33.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Bundesliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Bundesliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.