Toluca vs Monterrey predictions — Leagues Cup, 7 Sept

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Toluca have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.2 and conceding 0.4 per game. Monterrey have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 per game.