Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz predictions — Bundesliga, 3 May

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 home games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 per game. Sturm Graz have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.2 per game.