Thailand U23 vs Iraq U23 predictions — AFC U23 Asian Cup, 11 Jan

Model's headline prediction

Recency-weighted xG points to a high-scoring fixture. Thailand U23 have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.4 and conceding 0.4 per game. Iraq U23 have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 per game.