Italy vs Northern Ireland predictions — World Cup - Qualification Europe, 26 Mar

Model's headline prediction

Italy favoured at home based on the model's underlying numbers. Northern Ireland have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.4 per game. The last 2 meetings produced 1 Italy win, 0 Northern Ireland wins and 1 draw, averaging 1.0 goals.