Mārupe vs Progress / AFA Olaine predictions — 1. Liga, 25 Oct

Model's headline prediction

Mārupe favoured at home based on the model's underlying numbers. Progress / AFA Olaine have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 5.4 per game. The last 3 meetings produced 2 Mārupe wins, 1 Progress / AFA Olaine win and 0 draws, averaging 4.7 goals.