Neftchi vs Alga predictions — Premier League, 1 Oct

Model's headline prediction

Neftchi favoured at home based on the model's underlying numbers. Alga have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4 per game. The last 6 meetings produced 4 Neftchi wins, 1 Alga win and 1 draw, averaging 1.7 goals.