Slip of the day.
Two or three short-priced selections, depending on what the day offers, combined into one slip we'd actually stand behind. A small, curated multiple — not a long-odds accumulator.
One slip, every day.
The maths checks out.
At one unit per Slip of the Day, this is what the last 30 days actually returned. Losses included. No cherry-picking, no compounding.
What is the Slip of the Day?
The Slip of the Day is a single curated slip, published once a day. It takes three short-priced selections from the model's daily shortlist (four only on a thin day) and combines them into one slip. It is deliberately nota long-odds accumulator — every leg is a sensible short-priced pick, capped at even money, and there are only ever a handful of them. The aim is one slip we'd actually stand behind, not a get-rich punt.
How the slip is built
Candidates come from the same calibrated model behind the daily predictions. Each candidate is paired with the bookmaker's current odds, and any pick where the bookmaker is more pessimistic than the model is dropped — if the market is pricing a side shorter than we are, it usually knows something (a line-up, an injury) we haven't priced in.
From the picks that survive that check, the slip searches every combination of three legs (four only when three cannot get there), one per match and normally one per market and league, for the one whose combined price lands around 7/5 to 2/1 and has the best chance of landing. That chance is judged on the bookmaker's price as much as on the model's own number — the price is the sharper forecaster, and ranking on the model alone quietly favoured the legs where it disagreed most with the market. Every leg is held to even money or shorter. Once a slip is published for a day its prices are frozen, so the odds you see are the odds it was struck at.
Markets and how legs are chosen
A leg can be a match result (home or away win), a double chance (home or draw, away or draw) or over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score and the other over/under lines are covered elsewhere on the site but are not used in the slip. Each selection is a separately calibrated probability, and no two legs come from the same match.
How to read the slip and its odds
The combined odds are the legs multiplied together; the implied probability is 100 divided by those combined odds. The “model probability” is the model's own estimate of every leg landing, treating the matches as independent — a sanity check against the price rather than a promise. Exact model percentages and confidence are shown to signed-in users; the odds are always public, and once a day has finished the slip shows the real teams and whether it won or lost. The full history is on the track record.
Responsible use
These are calibrated probabilities, not certainties — even a sensible slip is expected to lose a fair share of the time, and that is the model working as intended rather than failing. It's one slip a day, no chasing. Please gamble responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the Slip of the Day?
- One slip, published once a day. It combines three short-priced selections from the model's daily shortlist (four only on a thin day) into a single slip — a small, curated multiple, not a long-odds accumulator.
- Is the slip an accumulator?
- It's a small multiple, but deliberately the opposite of a long-odds accumulator. Every leg is a short-priced pick — none longer than even money — and there are only ever three or four of them. It's built to be one sensible daily punt, not a stack of long shots.
- How are the selections chosen?
- They come from the same calibrated model that powers the daily predictions page, each paired with the bookmaker's odds. Picks where the bookmaker is more pessimistic than the model are dropped — the market often knows something we haven't priced in. From what's left, the slip takes the combination of legs, one per match and normally one per market, whose combined price lands around 7/5 to 2/1 and has the best chance of landing — judged on the bookmaker's price as much as on the model's own number. The model itself is described on the methodology page.
- What markets can appear in a slip?
- Match result (home or away win), double chance (home or draw, away or draw) and over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score and the other over/under lines aren't used for the slip, though they appear on the predictions and BTTS pages.
- What do the combined and implied probabilities mean?
- The combined odds are the legs multiplied together; the implied probability is 100 divided by those combined odds. The model probability is the model's own estimate of every leg landing, treating the matches as independent. It's a sanity check against the price, not a guarantee.
- Can I see past slips and how they did?
- Yes. Every settled day has its own page showing the real teams, the selections and whether the slip won or lost, and the full rolling record is on the track record page.
- Do you guarantee the slip wins?
- No. The legs are calibrated probabilities, not certainties, and a slip with a real chance of landing will still lose often. We publish the full record so the results are checkable rather than asking you to take it on faith. Please gamble responsibly.