How are these Primera División - Clausura predictions made?

Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.

Where does the Primera División - Clausura table come from?

It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.

Which Primera División - Clausura market is the model most reliable in?

There are not yet enough settled Primera División - Clausura tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.

How far ahead are Primera División - Clausura fixtures predicted?

Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public.

Primera División - Clausura predictions

Uruguay · top flight · table updated 1 Dec

Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División - Clausura match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División - Clausura in the Bet Finder.

This week's Primera División - Clausura fixtures

No Primera División - Clausura fixtures in the next 7 days.

Primera División - Clausura table

Primera Division 2025, Clausura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	15	11	2	2	30	12	+18	35
2	Club Nacional	15	8	6	1	25	11	+14	27(-3)
3	Atletico Torque	15	8	3	4	28	17	+11	27
4	Boston River	15	6	8	1	26	10	+16	26
5	Cerro Largo	15	7	4	4	19	14	+5	25
6	Liverpool Montevideo	15	7	4	4	19	16	+3	25
7	Cerro	15	7	3	5	13	13	0	24
8	Defensor Sporting	15	7	2	6	13	16	-3	23
9	Danubio	15	6	3	6	18	13	+5	21
10	Progreso	15	5	3	7	17	23	-6	18
11	Racing Montevideo	15	4	5	6	14	22	-8	17
12	Juventud	15	4	4	7	8	13	-5	16
13	CA River Plate	15	3	5	7	12	18	-6	14
14	Miramar	15	3	4	8	17	26	-9	13
15	Plaza Colonia	15	2	2	11	9	26	-17	8
16	Wanderers	15	1	4	10	7	25	-18	7

Primera Division 2025, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	15	5	+10	16
2	Defensor Sporting	7	4	2	1	12	10	+2	14
3	Wanderers	7	3	3	1	6	5	+1	12
4	Plaza Colonia	7	1	5	1	6	7	-1	8
5	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	2	3	10	12	-2	8
6	Cerro	7	2	2	3	7	9	-2	8
7	CA River Plate	7	1	2	4	6	10	-4	5
8	Cerro Largo	7	0	3	4	7	11	-4	3

Primera Division 2025, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Club Nacional	7	7	0	0	16	6	+10	21
2	Juventud	7	5	0	2	14	11	+3	15
3	Racing Montevideo	7	4	1	2	11	6	+5	13
4	Danubio	7	3	1	3	11	11	0	10
5	Boston River	7	2	1	4	8	12	-4	7
6	Progreso	7	2	0	5	4	10	-6	6
7	Atletico Torque	7	1	2	4	10	12	-2	5
8	Miramar	7	1	1	5	2	8	-6	4

Primera Division 2025, Apertura

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool Montevideo	15	9	5	1	22	9	+13	32
2	Club Nacional	15	9	4	2	35	16	+19	31
3	Juventud	15	9	3	3	23	15	+8	30
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	21	17	+4	27
5	Defensor Sporting	15	7	3	5	17	12	+5	24
6	Racing Montevideo	15	6	5	4	14	10	+4	23
7	Boston River	15	6	4	5	16	17	-1	22
8	Cerro Largo	15	5	6	4	15	16	-1	21
9	Plaza Colonia	15	5	4	6	13	13	0	19
10	Atletico Torque	15	4	5	6	16	22	-6	17
11	Progreso	15	3	6	6	17	27	-10	15
12	Cerro	15	3	6	6	13	20	-7	14(-1)
13	Danubio	15	1	9	5	12	17	-5	12
14	Wanderers	15	2	6	7	12	17	-5	12
15	Miramar	15	3	3	9	16	24	-8	12
16	CA River Plate	15	2	4	9	10	20	-10	10

Primera Division 2025, Overall

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Club Nacional	37	24	10	3	76	33	+43	79(-3)
2	Penarol	37	24	6	7	66	34	+32	78
3	Liverpool Montevideo	37	18	11	8	51	37	+14	65
4	Juventud	37	18	7	12	45	39	+6	61
5	Defensor Sporting	37	18	7	12	42	38	+4	61
6	Boston River	37	14	13	10	50	39	+11	55
7	Racing Montevideo	37	14	11	12	39	38	+1	53
8	Atletico Torque	37	13	10	14	54	51	+3	49
9	Cerro Largo	37	12	13	12	41	41	0	49
10	Cerro	37	12	11	14	33	42	-9	46(-1)
11	Danubio	37	10	13	14	41	41	0	43
12	Progreso	37	10	9	18	38	60	-22	39
13	Plaza Colonia	37	8	11	18	28	46	-18	35
14	Wanderers	37	6	13	18	25	47	-22	31
15	CA River Plate	37	6	11	20	28	48	-20	29
16	Miramar	37	7	8	22	35	58	-23	29

Playoffs
Finals
Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores Qualification
Copa Sudamericana

Official Primera División - Clausura table via API-Sports · points deductions applied to Club Nacional, Cerro · updated 2025-12-01.

This season in numbers

2.28

goals per game (124 matches)

40%

both teams scored

43%

over 2.5 goals

64%

over 1.5 goals

23%

over 3.5 goals

41%

home wins

27%

draws

32%

away wins

The model's Primera División - Clausura record

Not enough settled Primera División - Clausura tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.

Recent Primera División - Clausura results

About Primera División - Clausura

Primera División - Clausura is the top flight of Uruguay football played across 5 groups. The 2025 season has produced 2.28 goals per game over 124 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 43% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 27% drawn. The table is published as Primera Division 2025, Clausura, Primera Division 2025, Torneo Intermedio, Group A, Primera Division 2025, Torneo Intermedio, Group B, Primera Division 2025, Apertura, Primera Division 2025, Overall. Club Nacional (-3), Cerro (-1) have had points deducted, which the table above reflects.

How the model handles Primera División - Clausura

Every Primera División - Clausura fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Primera División - Clausura tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.

Frequently asked questions

How are these Primera División - Clausura predictions made?: Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
Where does the Primera División - Clausura table come from?: It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
Which Primera División - Clausura market is the model most reliable in?: There are not yet enough settled Primera División - Clausura tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
How far ahead are Primera División - Clausura fixtures predicted?: Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División - Clausura by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.

Other Uruguay competitions

Segunda División