Premier League predictions
Ukraine · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 25 Oct · 11:00BukovynavKryvbas KRNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 11:00ChornomoretsvKarpatyNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Zorya LuhanskvEpitsentr DunayivtsiNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00KarpatyvKudrivkaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Kolos KovalivkavPolessyaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Kryvbas KRvDynamo KyivNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Livyi BerehvBukovynaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00LNZ CherkasyvFC KharkivNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Shakhtar DonetskvObolon'-BrovarNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Veres RivnevChornomoretsNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 25 | |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 25 | |
| 3 |  FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 | |
| 4 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 | |
| 5 |  Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 | |
| 6 |  Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 | |
| 7 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 | |
| 9 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 7 | |
| 14 |  Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 24 | -13 | 5 | |
| 16 |  Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Persha Liga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Persha Liga
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 65.8% | 80.0% | +14.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 17 | 83.5% | 94.1% | +10.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 6 | 61.8% | 83.3% | +21.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 6 | 82.4% | 83.3% | +0.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 9 | 61.5% | 66.7% | +5.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 24 Oct · 16:00Shakhtar Donetsk0-0Zorya LuhanskOver 2.5✗
- 24 Oct · 11:00Livyi Bereh0-0LNZ CherkasyNo pick
- 24 Oct · 11:00Epitsentr Dunayivtsi1-2FC KharkivDraw✗
- 23 Oct · 11:00Veres Rivne0-2Kolos KovalivkaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 11:00Polessya3-0Obolon'-BrovarHome or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 11:00Dynamo Kyiv3-1KudrivkaHome or Draw✓
- 19 Oct · 11:00FC Kharkiv2-1Livyi BerehNo pick
- 18 Oct · 16:00Karpaty2-2Epitsentr DunayivtsiHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 11:00Polessya3-1Dynamo KyivNo pick
- 18 Oct · 11:00Kryvbas KR0-3LNZ CherkasyNo pick
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Ukraine football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.46 goals per game over 74 matches: both teams scored in 45%, 53% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 27% drawn. Polessya lead the table on 25 points from 10 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 48 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.8% on average and landing 83.3%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is away or draw (82.4% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 82.4% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.