Premier League predictions
Ukraine · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 11 Sept · 11:00Kolos KovalivkavKarpatyDrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 11:00Kryvbas KRvFC KharkivNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 11:00LNZ CherkasyvObolon'-BrovarHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 16:00Veres RivnevKudrivkaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 13:30PolessyavLivyi BerehNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 16:00BukovynavZorya LuhanskNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 13:30Dynamo KyivvEpitsentr DunayivtsiNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 16:00Shakhtar DonetskvChornomoretsNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Polessya | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 12 | |
| 3 |  Karpaty | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 10 | |
| 4 |  FC Kharkiv | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | |
| 5 |  Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 8 | |
| 6 |  Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  Zorya Luhansk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Bukovyna | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Veres Rivne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Kryvbas KR | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | |
| 11 |  LNZ Cherkasy | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Livyi Bereh | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Chornomorets | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Obolon'-Brovar | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -8 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Kolos Kovalivka | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Kudrivka | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Persha Liga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Persha Liga
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 2 | 67.4% | 100.0% | +32.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.9% | 85.7% | +2.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 60.4% | 80.0% | +19.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 81.8% | 80.0% | -1.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 63.1% | 100.0% | +36.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 6 Sept · 16:00Epitsentr Dunayivtsi0-0BukovynaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 13:30Veres Rivne1-1Zorya LuhanskNo pick
- 6 Sept · 11:00Dynamo Kyiv0-0LNZ CherkasyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 16:00Karpaty1-2Shakhtar DonetskNo pick
- 5 Sept · 11:00Kryvbas KR2-2Kolos KovalivkaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 11:00FC Kharkiv5-0Obolon'-BrovarHome or Draw✓
- 4 Sept · 16:00Polessya5-1KudrivkaNo pick
- 4 Sept · 11:00Chornomorets0-0Livyi BerehNo pick
- 31 Aug · 16:00Bukovyna3-0Dynamo KyivAway or Draw✗
- 31 Aug · 11:00Zorya Luhansk0-3FC KharkivHome or Draw✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Ukraine football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.24 goals per game over 38 matches: both teams scored in 37%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 34% with 34% drawn. Polessya lead the table on 12 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 22 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.4% on average and landing 86.4%. Its best-calibrated Premier League market so far is away or draw (81.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 81.8% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.