Super Liga predictions
Serbia · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Super Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Super Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Super Liga fixtures
- 10 Sept · 18:00Radnik SurdulicavFK Crvena ZvezdaAway or DrawStrong
- 11 Sept · 17:30Železničar PančevovMacvaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:00IMT Novi BeogradvFK Crvena ZvezdaAway or DrawStrong
- 12 Sept · 17:00FK PartizanvVojvodinaOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 17:00Radnicki NISvOFK BeogradNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:00ZemunvRadnik SurdulicaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 17:30CukarickivNovi PazarNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:30Radnicki 1923vMladost LucaniNo pick yet
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | +16 | 18 | |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 18 | |
| 3 |  IMT Novi Beograd | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Mladost Lucani | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Radnik Surdulica | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 | |
| 7 |  Novi Pazar | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 | |
| 8 |  Cukaricki | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | |
| 9 |  OFK Beograd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Železničar Pančevo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 | |
| 11 |  Macva | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 8 | |
| 12 |  FK Partizan | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 7 | |
| 13 |  Radnicki NIS | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Zemun | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 1 |
- Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)
- Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)
Official Super Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Super Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 65.4% | 77.8% | +12.4 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 84.2% | 75.0% | -9.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 61.4% | 66.7% | +5.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 80.0% | 66.7% | -13.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 10 | 62.0% | 70.0% | +8.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Super Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Super Liga results
- 7 Sept · 19:00OFK Beograd1-1IMT Novi BeogradNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:00Vojvodina2-1ZemunHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 18:00FK Crvena Zvezda2-1FK PartizanOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 19:00Mladost Lucani1-0Radnicki NISNo pick
- 5 Sept · 19:00Macva0-0Radnicki 1923No pick
- 5 Sept · 17:00Radnik Surdulica3-1CukarickiAway or Draw✗
- 4 Sept · 18:00Novi Pazar2-0Železničar PančevoNo pick
- 31 Aug · 18:00FK Partizan3-1OFK BeogradHome Win✓
- 30 Aug · 20:00IMT Novi Beograd2-0Mladost LucaniNo pick
- 30 Aug · 19:00Zemun0-2FK Crvena ZvezdaAway or Draw✓
About Super Liga
Super Liga is the top flight of Serbia football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.44 goals per game over 52 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 58% with 23% drawn. FK Crvena Zvezda lead the table on 18 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Super Liga
Every Super Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 33 Super Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 69.9% on average and landing 72.7%. Its best-calibrated Super Liga market so far is over 2.5 (62.0% claimed against 70.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Super Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Super Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Super Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Super Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.0% claimed against 70.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Super Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Super Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.