Stars League predictions
Qatar · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 7 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Stars League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Stars League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Stars League fixtures
- 10 Sept · 15:00Al ShamalvAl WakrahOver 2.5Moderate
- 10 Sept · 17:15Al-SailiyavAl SaddAway or DrawStrong
- 11 Sept · 15:00Al-GharafavLusail CityOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 17:15Al-Rayyan SCvAl Ahli DohaOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 15:00Al-Arabi SCvQatar SCOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 17:15Al-Duhail SCvAl ShahaniyaOver 2.5Moderate
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Sadd | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 9 | |
| 2 |  Al Shamal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 | |
| 3 |  Al-Rayyan SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Al-Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 5 | |
| 5 |  Al-Duhail SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | |
| 6 |  Lusail City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 | |
| 7 |  Al Ahli Doha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 8 |  Al Shahaniya | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 | |
| 9 |  Al-Gharafa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | |
| 10 |  Qatar SC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 | |
| 11 |  Al Wakrah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 | |
| 12 |  Al-Sailiya | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
- Promotion - Gulf Club Champions League
- QSL (Relegation)
- Relegation - QSL 2
Official Stars League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-07.
This season in numbers
The model's Stars League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 60.8% | 100.0% | +39.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 83.4% | 100.0% | +16.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 80.4% | 100.0% | +19.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 17 | 62.7% | 64.7% | +2.0 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 3 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Stars League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Stars League results
- 5 Sept · 17:15Al Sadd4-1Al-GharafaOver 2.5✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00Al-Rayyan SC1-1Al-Duhail SCOver 2.5✗
- 4 Sept · 17:15Lusail City4-0Al WakrahOver 2.5✓
- 4 Sept · 15:00Al Shamal4-2Al ShahaniyaOver 2.5✓
- 3 Sept · 17:15Al-Sailiya0-2Al-Arabi SCOver 2.5✗
- 3 Sept · 15:00Al Ahli Doha1-0Qatar SCOver 2.5✗
- 29 Aug · 17:30Al Shahaniya3-2Al-SailiyaOver 2.5✓
- 29 Aug · 15:15Al-Duhail SC1-1Al-Arabi SCBTTS✓
- 28 Aug · 17:30Qatar SC2-6Al SaddAway or Draw✓
- 28 Aug · 15:15Al Ahli Doha3-3Lusail CityNo pick
About Stars League
Stars League is the top flight of Qatar football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.67 goals per game over 18 matches: both teams scored in 72%, 67% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 28% drawn. Al Sadd lead the table on 9 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Stars League
Every Stars League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 27 Stars League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.1% on average and landing 77.8%. Its best-calibrated Stars League market so far is over 2.5 (62.7% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Stars League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Stars League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Stars League market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Stars League tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.7% claimed against 64.7% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Stars League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Stars League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.