Primeira Liga predictions
Portugal · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primeira Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primeira Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primeira Liga fixtures
- 25 Oct · 18:00NacionalvSC BragaAway or DrawSolid
- 25 Oct · 18:00Rio AvevFamalicaoNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 20:30Sporting CPvAcademico ViseuHome or DrawSolid
- 26 Oct · 18:45Santa ClaravBenficaAway or DrawSolid
- 30 Oct · 20:15Casa PiavSporting CPNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:30MoreirensevEstrelaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 20:30FC PortovEstorilNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 15:30AroucavNacionalNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 18:00Academico ViseuvRio AveNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 18:00MaritimovSanta ClaraNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 20:30SC BragavFamalicaoNo pick yet
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 | |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 18 | |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 17 | |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 14 | |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 | |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Estrela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 | |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 | |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Liga Portugal (Relegation)
- Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
Official Primeira Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Primeira Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 14 | 73.7% | 78.6% | +4.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 15 | 87.3% | 93.3% | +6.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 15 | 61.1% | 66.7% | +5.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 15 | 80.1% | 93.3% | +13.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 16 | 63.2% | 68.8% | +5.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primeira Liga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primeira Liga results
- 25 Oct · 15:30Estoril1-3MoreirenseNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:30GIL Vicente0-1FC PortoAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 18:00Alverca0-1AroucaNo pick
- 24 Oct · 15:30Estrela0-2Casa PiaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 20:45Vitória SC5-0MaritimoNo pick
- 19 Oct · 20:15SC Braga1-2GIL VicenteHome or Draw✗
- 12 Oct · 20:15Famalicao1-4AlvercaNo pick
- 11 Oct · 20:30Arouca1-0EstrelaNo pick
- 11 Oct · 18:00Benfica2-0Vitória SCHome or Draw✓
- 11 Oct · 15:30Rio Ave3-2NacionalNo pick
About Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga is the top flight of Portugal football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.74 goals per game over 77 matches: both teams scored in 49%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 38% with 23% drawn. FC Porto lead the table on 27 points from 9 games.
How the model handles Primeira Liga
Every Primeira Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 75 Primeira Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.9% on average and landing 80.0%. Its best-calibrated Primeira Liga market so far is home win (73.7% claimed against 78.6% hit over 14 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primeira Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primeira Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primeira Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primeira Liga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 73.7% claimed against 78.6% hit over 14 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primeira Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primeira Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.