Primeira Liga predictions
Portugal · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primeira Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primeira Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primeira Liga fixtures
- 10 Sept · 20:15EstrelavSC BragaAway or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 15:30NacionalvAlvercaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 18:00Casa PiavFC PortoAway or DrawStrong
- 12 Sept · 20:30Academico ViseuvVitória SCNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00AroucavSanta ClaraNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 18:00BenficavGIL VicenteHome or DrawStrong
- 13 Sept · 20:30FamalicaovSporting CPAway or DrawStrong
- 14 Sept · 18:45Rio AvevEstrelaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 20:15SC BragavEstorilNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 20:15MoreirensevMaritimoNo pick yet
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 15 | |
| 2 |  Benfica | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 | |
| 5 |  Arouca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 | |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 7 |  SC Braga | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Maritimo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Estrela | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Academico Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 | |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 12 |  Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 | |
| 16 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 | |
| 17 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 | |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 1 |
- Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Liga Portugal (Relegation)
- Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
Official Primeira Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primeira Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 74.6% | 88.9% | +14.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 87.2% | 100.0% | +12.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 9 | 61.6% | 77.8% | +16.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 9 | 80.4% | 100.0% | +19.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 13 | 63.0% | 69.2% | +6.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primeira Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primeira Liga results
- 9 Sept · 20:45Moreirense0-4BenficaAway or Draw✓
- 7 Sept · 20:15Estoril0-0AroucaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 20:30GIL Vicente0-1Academico ViseuNo pick
- 6 Sept · 18:00Vitória SC0-0Casa PiaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:30Santa Clara4-0Rio AveNo pick
- 5 Sept · 20:30Sporting CP2-0NacionalHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 18:00Maritimo0-3BenficaAway or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 18:00Alverca1-2SC BragaAway or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 15:30Estrela2-2FamalicaoNo pick
- 4 Sept · 20:15FC Porto2-1MoreirenseHome or Draw✓
About Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga is the top flight of Portugal football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.63 goals per game over 43 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 40% with 28% drawn. FC Porto lead the table on 15 points from 5 games.
How the model handles Primeira Liga
Every Primeira Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 50 Primeira Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.8% on average and landing 86.0%. Its best-calibrated Primeira Liga market so far is over 2.5 (63.0% claimed against 69.2% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primeira Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primeira Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primeira Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primeira Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 63.0% claimed against 69.2% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primeira Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primeira Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.