Premiership predictions
New Zealand · top flight · 8 teams · table updated 21 Mar
Calibrated probabilities for every Premiership match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premiership in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premiership fixtures
No Premiership fixtures in the next 7 days.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Auckland City | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 28 | |
| 2 |  Team Wellington | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 26 | |
| 3 |  Hamilton Wanderers | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 20 | |
| 4 |  Eastern Suburbs | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 19 | |
| 5 |  Waitakere United | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Canterbury United | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 18 | |
| 7 |  Hawkes BAY United | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Wellington Phoenix II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 10 |
- Final Series
Official Premiership table via API-Sports · updated 2021-03-21.
This season in numbers
The model's Premiership record
Not enough settled Premiership tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Premiership results
- 21 Mar · 2:10Auckland City2-4Team WellingtonNo pick
- 14 Mar · 1:00Auckland City2-1Eastern SuburbsNo pick
- 13 Mar · 1:00Team Wellington4-1Hamilton WanderersNo pick
- 10 Mar · 3:15Hawkes BAY United1-2Eastern SuburbsNo pick
- 27 Feb · 2:00Auckland City2-2Waitakere UnitedNo pick
- 27 Feb · 1:00Canterbury United5-1Wellington Phoenix IINo pick
- 27 Feb · 0:00Team Wellington3-2Hamilton WanderersNo pick
- 21 Feb · 3:00Eastern Suburbs1-1Hamilton WanderersNo pick
- 21 Feb · 2:00Waitakere United2-0Hawkes BAY UnitedNo pick
- 20 Feb · 1:00Wellington Phoenix II1-1Auckland CityNo pick
About Premiership
Premiership is the top flight of New Zealand football with 8 teams. The 2020 season has produced 3.83 goals per game over 35 matches: both teams scored in 74%, 69% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 29% drawn. Auckland City lead the table on 28 points from 14 games.
How the model handles Premiership
Every Premiership fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Premiership tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premiership predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premiership table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premiership market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Premiership tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Premiership fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premiership by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.