National Division predictions
Luxembourg · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every National Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's National Division fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:00UN Kaerjeng 97vVictoria RosportNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:00Racing FC Union LuxembourgvAS Jeunesse EschNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 16:00US HostertvF91 DudelangeAway or DrawStrong
- 12 Sept · 17:00FC Differdange 03vEtzella EttelbruckHome or DrawStrong
- 12 Sept · 17:00WiltzvProgres NiederkornAway or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 15:00Swift HesperangevRésidence WalferdangeNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 15:00US Mondorf-les-bainsvUNA StrassenNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 15:00US RumelangevAtert BissenNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00Atert BissenvWiltzNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00FC Differdange 03vSwift HesperangeNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00F91 DudelangevUN Kaerjeng 97No pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00US HostertvAS Jeunesse EschNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00Progres NiederkornvRacing FC Union LuxembourgNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00UNA StrassenvUS RumelangeNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00Victoria RosportvEtzella EttelbruckNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 19:00Résidence WalferdangevUS Mondorf-les-bainsNo pick yet
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNA Strassen | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 18 | |
| 2 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 | |
| 3 |  FC Differdange 03 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 13 | |
| 5 |  Progres Niederkorn | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 12 | |
| 6 |  US Hostert | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Résidence Walferdange | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | |
| 8 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Atert Bissen | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 | |
| 10 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 6 | |
| 11 |  F91 Dudelange | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 | |
| 12 |  US Rumelange | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 6 | |
| 13 |  Victoria Rosport | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Wiltz | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Etzella Ettelbruck | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Swift Hesperange | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 24 | -22 | 0 |
- Qualifying
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
- Relegation
Official National Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's National Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 61.8% | 75.0% | +13.2 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% | +13.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 58.3% | 75.0% | +16.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 79.1% | 75.0% | -4.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 17 | 62.1% | 82.4% | +20.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.6% | 0.0% | -64.6 |
Settled National Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National Division results
- 6 Sept · 18:00AS Jeunesse Esch5-1WiltzOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 15:00Résidence Walferdange0-3UNA StrassenNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Progres Niederkorn3-0US RumelangeNo pick
- 6 Sept · 15:00Swift Hesperange0-3Etzella EttelbruckOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 15:00F91 Dudelange1-3Racing FC Union LuxembourgOver 2.5✓
- 6 Sept · 15:00FC Differdange 034-1UN Kaerjeng 97Home or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 15:00Atert Bissen1-2US Mondorf-les-bainsNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:00Victoria Rosport0-2US HostertNo pick
- 30 Aug · 17:00UNA Strassen2-1Atert BissenNo pick
- 30 Aug · 15:00Wiltz1-2F91 DudelangeOver 2.5✓
About National Division
National Division is the top flight of Luxembourg football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.52 goals per game over 48 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 69% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 48% with 4% drawn. UNA Strassen lead the table on 18 points from 6 games.
How the model handles National Division
Every National Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 32 National Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 64.6% on average and landing 75.0%. Its best-calibrated National Division market so far is over 2.5 (62.1% claimed against 82.4% hit over 17 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled National Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.1% claimed against 82.4% hit over 17 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are National Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.