National Division predictions
Luxembourg · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every National Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter National Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's National Division fixtures
- 25 Oct · 15:00FC Differdange 03vF91 DudelangeOver 2.5Moderate
- 25 Oct · 15:00Swift HesperangevAS Jeunesse EschOver 2.5Moderate
- 25 Oct · 15:00US HostertvUNA StrassenAway or DrawModerate
- 25 Oct · 15:00UN Kaerjeng 97vAtert BissenNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 15:00Racing FC Union LuxembourgvUS Mondorf-les-bainsNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 15:00Victoria RosportvRésidence WalferdangeNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 15:00WiltzvUS RumelangeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00F91 DudelangevVictoria RosportNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00AS Jeunesse EschvFC Differdange 03No pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00Atert BissenvEtzella EttelbruckNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00US Mondorf-les-bainsvUS HostertNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00Progres NiederkornvSwift HesperangeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00US RumelangevRacing FC Union LuxembourgNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00UNA StrassenvUN Kaerjeng 97No pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00Résidence WalferdangevWiltzNo pick yet
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 28 | |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 8 | +22 | 27 | |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 24 | |
| 4 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 19 | |
| 6 |  Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 19 | |
| 7 |  Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 | |
| 8 |  Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 16 | |
| 9 |  F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 13 | |
| 10 |  US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 11 | |
| 11 |  AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 8 | |
| 13 |  Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 | |
| 14 |  US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 7 | |
| 15 |  Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 38 | -36 | 0 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- BGL Ligue (Relegation)
- Relegation
Official National Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's National Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 66.1% | 70.0% | +3.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 84.7% | 71.4% | -13.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 10 | 59.4% | 70.0% | +10.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 10 | 79.5% | 80.0% | +0.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 30 | 63.8% | 76.7% | +12.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 4 | 65.7% | 0.0% | -65.7 |
Settled National Division matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent National Division results
- 24 Oct · 17:00Etzella Ettelbruck2-0Progres NiederkornAway or Draw✗
- 18 Oct · 15:00Résidence Walferdange3-3US RumelangeNo pick
- 18 Oct · 15:00Victoria Rosport3-5FC Differdange 03Away or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 15:00UNA Strassen1-1Racing FC Union LuxembourgNo pick
- 18 Oct · 15:00US Mondorf-les-bains4-1WiltzOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 15:00AS Jeunesse Esch1-0Etzella EttelbruckOver 2.5✗
- 18 Oct · 15:00F91 Dudelange5-0Swift HesperangeBTTS✗
- 18 Oct · 15:00Atert Bissen5-1US HostertNo pick
- 17 Oct · 16:30Progres Niederkorn1-2UN Kaerjeng 97Home or Draw✗
- 11 Oct · 15:00Wiltz0-2UNA StrassenAway or Draw✓
About National Division
National Division is the top flight of Luxembourg football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.54 goals per game over 81 matches: both teams scored in 52%, 68% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 11% drawn. UNA Strassen lead the table on 28 points from 10 games.
How the model handles National Division
Every National Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 71 National Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.9% on average and landing 70.4%. Its best-calibrated National Division market so far is away or draw (79.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these National Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the National Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which National Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled National Division tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is away or draw: 79.5% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are National Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter National Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.