Virsliga predictions
Latvia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 10 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Virsliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Virsliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Virsliga fixtures
- 10 Sept · 17:00Super NovavTukumsNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 15:00Ogre UnitedvFK LiepajaOver 2.5Moderate
- 11 Sept · 16:00RigavAudaHome WinModerate
- 12 Sept · 12:00GrobiņavFS JelgavaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 12:00BFC DaugavpilsvRīgas FSAway or DrawStrong
- 15 Sept · 17:00Super NovavRigaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 17:00AudavOgre UnitedHome WinModerate
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rīgas FS | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 20 | +48 | 70 | |
| 2 |  Riga | 28 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 82 | 28 | +54 | 66 | |
| 3 |  Auda | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 27 | +18 | 56 | |
| 4 |  FK Liepaja | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 41 | |
| 5 |  BFC Daugavpils | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 38 | |
| 6 |  Super Nova | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 32 | |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 31 | |
| 8 |  Grobiņa | 29 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 24 | |
| 9 |  Tukums | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 23 | |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 28 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 27 | 73 | -46 | 14 |
Official Virsliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-10.
This season in numbers
The model's Virsliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 8 | 72.8% | 62.5% | -10.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 8 | 87.0% | 100.0% | +13.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 7 | 60.9% | 71.4% | +10.5 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 7 | 80.3% | 71.4% | -8.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 11 | 66.4% | 72.7% | +6.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Virsliga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Virsliga results
- 7 Sept · 17:00Rīgas FS0-0FK LiepajaOver 2.5✗
- 7 Sept · 17:00Riga1-1BFC DaugavpilsHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 16:00Auda1-0GrobiņaHome or Draw✓
- 5 Sept · 15:00FS Jelgava0-1Super NovaDraw✗
- 5 Sept · 13:00Tukums2-1Ogre UnitedNo pick
- 31 Aug · 15:30FK Liepaja3-2RigaAway or Draw✗
- 30 Aug · 15:00Ogre United0-3Rīgas FSAway or Draw✓
- 29 Aug · 17:00Auda1-1Super NovaHome or Draw✓
- 29 Aug · 15:00Tukums1-4FS JelgavaNo pick
- 29 Aug · 13:00Grobiņa1-0BFC DaugavpilsNo pick
About Virsliga
Virsliga is the top flight of Latvia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.94 goals per game over 142 matches: both teams scored in 55%, 55% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 22% drawn. Rīgas FS lead the table on 70 points from 28 games.
How the model handles Virsliga
Every Virsliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 41 Virsliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.1% on average and landing 75.6%. Its best-calibrated Virsliga market so far is over 2.5 (66.4% claimed against 72.7% hit over 11 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Virsliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Virsliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Virsliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Virsliga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 66.4% claimed against 72.7% hit over 11 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Virsliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Virsliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.