Virsliga predictions
Latvia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Virsliga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Virsliga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Virsliga fixtures
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rīgas FS | 33 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 81 | 24 | +57 | 83 | |
| 2 |  Riga | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 90 | 31 | +59 | 79 | |
| 3 |  Auda | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 53 | 34 | +19 | 64 | |
| 4 |  FK Liepaja | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 46 | 46 | 0 | 47 | |
| 5 |  BFC Daugavpils | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 45 | |
| 6 |  Super Nova | 33 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 38 | |
| 7 |  FS Jelgava | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 32 | |
| 8 |  Grobiņa | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 56 | -31 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Tukums | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 25 | |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 33 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 33 | 81 | -48 | 18 |
Official Virsliga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Virsliga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 15 | 73.0% | 66.7% | -6.3 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 15 | 86.8% | 100.0% | +13.2 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 12 | 64.6% | 66.7% | +2.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 12 | 81.8% | 83.3% | +1.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 23 | 65.5% | 65.2% | -0.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Virsliga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Virsliga results
- 25 Oct · 16:00Super Nova0-3Rīgas FSAway or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 12:00FS Jelgava0-1BFC DaugavpilsNo pick
- 25 Oct · 11:00Ogre United1-4AudaAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 11:00FK Liepaja0-0TukumsOver 2.5✗
- 19 Oct · 17:00Rīgas FS2-0TukumsOver 2.5✗
- 19 Oct · 16:00BFC Daugavpils2-1AudaAway or Draw✗
- 18 Oct · 14:00Riga2-1Super NovaHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 14:00FK Liepaja3-0FS JelgavaNo pick
- 17 Oct · 12:00Grobiņa3-2Ogre UnitedOver 2.5✓
- 15 Oct · 15:00Rīgas FS4-0Super NovaHome or Draw✓
About Virsliga
Virsliga is the top flight of Latvia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.88 goals per game over 169 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 54% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 43% with 23% drawn. Rīgas FS lead the table on 83 points from 33 games.
How the model handles Virsliga
Every Virsliga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 77 Virsliga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.5% on average and landing 75.3%. Its best-calibrated Virsliga market so far is over 2.5 (65.5% claimed against 65.2% hit over 23 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Virsliga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Virsliga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Virsliga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Virsliga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 65.5% claimed against 65.2% hit over 23 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Virsliga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Virsliga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.