Liga Leumit predictions
Israel · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Leumit match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Leumit in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Leumit fixtures
Liga Leumit table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ashdod | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 28 | |
| 2 |  Bnei Yehuda | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 9 | +17 | 27 | |
| 3 |  Hapoel Kfar Shalem | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 | |
| 4 |  Hapoel Rishon LeZion | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Hapoel Ra'anana | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 14 | +8 | 19 | |
| 6 |  Kiryat Yam SC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 19 | |
| 7 |  Hapoel Afula | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 18 | |
| 8 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 17 | |
| 9 |  Kafr Qasim | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 | |
| 10 |  Hapoel Kfar Saba | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 12 | |
| 11 |  Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 | |
| 12 |  Maccabi Ahi Nazareth | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Ironi Modi'in | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 | |
| 14 |  Maccabi Herzliya | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | |
| 15 |  Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 9 | |
| 16 |  Hapoel Acre | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 28 | -28 | 1 |
- Promotion - Leumit League (Promotion Group)
- Leumit League (Relegation Group)
Official Liga Leumit table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Leumit record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 53.8% | 0.0% | -53.8 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 77.5% | 100.0% | +22.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 2 | 58.7% | 50.0% | -8.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.0% | 0.0% | -64.0 |
Settled Liga Leumit matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Leumit results
- 23 Oct · 14:00Kafr Qasim0-1AshdodNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Maccabi Herzliya0-1Maccabi Kabilio JaffaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Maccabi Kiryat Gat2-2Maccabi Ahi NazarethNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Ironi Modi'in0-6Maccabi Bnei RainaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Hapoel Rishon LeZion0-3Hapoel Kfar ShalemDraw✗
- 23 Oct · 14:00Hapoel Kfar Saba2-0Hapoel AfulaDraw✗
- 23 Oct · 14:00Hapoel Acre0-1Hapoel Ra'ananaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Bnei Yehuda5-1Kiryat Yam SCNo pick
- 19 Oct · 17:00Maccabi Bnei Raina1-1Hapoel Rishon LeZionNo pick
- 19 Oct · 17:00Hapoel Ra'anana1-1Bnei YehudaNo pick
About Liga Leumit
Liga Leumit is the top flight of Israel football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.03 goals per game over 88 matches: both teams scored in 51%, 58% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 38% with 17% drawn. Ashdod lead the table on 28 points from 11 games.
How the model handles Liga Leumit
Every Liga Leumit fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 5 Liga Leumit tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 62.5% on average and landing 40.0%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Leumit predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Leumit table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Leumit market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Liga Leumit tips since 27 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Liga Leumit fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Leumit by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.