Premier Division predictions
Ireland · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier Division fixtures
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 35 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 68 | |
| 2 |  Bohemians | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 62 | |
| 3 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 60 | |
| 4 |  Shelbourne | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 50 | 47 | +3 | 49 | |
| 5 |  Derry City | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 | |
| 6 |  Galway United | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 42 | |
| 7 |  Dundalk | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 42 | |
| 8 |  Waterford | 35 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 40 | |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 35 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 37 | |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 35 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 64 | -38 | 24 |
- Play-offs
- Qualifying
- Relegation Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Premier Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 7 | 65.2% | 57.1% | -8.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 83.5% | 100.0% | +16.5 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.4% | 100.0% | +47.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.7% | 100.0% | +23.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 5 | 60.1% | 100.0% | +39.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.9% | 100.0% | +35.1 |
Settled Premier Division matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier Division results
- 23 Oct · 20:00Shamrock Rovers4-0Sligo RoversHome or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 19:45Waterford3-1Drogheda UnitedHome or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 19:45Galway United0-0St Patrick's Athl.No pick
- 23 Oct · 19:45Derry City2-1DundalkHome or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 19:45Bohemians0-1ShelbourneNo pick
- 19 Oct · 20:00Derry City1-0St Patrick's Athl.No pick
- 19 Oct · 19:45Waterford3-2Galway UnitedBTTS✓
- 17 Oct · 19:45Sligo Rovers1-1DundalkNo pick
- 16 Oct · 20:00St Patrick's Athl.1-2ShelbourneNo pick
- 16 Oct · 19:45Galway United2-0Shamrock RoversNo pick
About Premier Division
Premier Division is the top flight of Ireland football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.78 goals per game over 175 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 52% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 41% with 31% drawn. Shamrock Rovers lead the table on 68 points from 35 games.
How the model handles Premier Division
Every Premier Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 27 Premier Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.3% on average and landing 88.9%. Its best-calibrated Premier Division market so far is home win (65.2% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier Division tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 65.2% claimed against 57.1% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.