Premier Division predictions
Ireland · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 6 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier Division fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:45Drogheda UnitedvSligo RoversNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45Galway UnitedvBohemiansNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45ShelbournevDerry CityNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 19:45WaterfordvDundalkHome or DrawModerate
- 11 Sept · 20:00St Patrick's Athl.vShamrock RoversNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 19:45DundalkvSt Patrick's Athl.No pick yet
- 14 Sept · 19:45ShelbournevDrogheda UnitedNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 19:45WaterfordvDerry CityNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 19:45Sligo RoversvGalway UnitedNo pick yet
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Shamrock Rovers | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 56 | |
| 2 |  St Patrick's Athl. | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 25 | +20 | 50 | |
| 3 |  Bohemians | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 34 | +16 | 50 | |
| 4 |  Dundalk | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 40 | |
| 5 |  Shelbourne | 28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 36 | |
| 6 |  Derry City | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 34 | |
| 7 |  Galway United | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 34 | |
| 8 |  Waterford | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 32 | |
| 9 |  Drogheda United | 29 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 28 | |
| 10 |  Sligo Rovers | 29 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 23 |
- Play-offs
- Qualifying
- Relegation Play-offs
- Relegation
Official Premier Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-06.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 4 | 61.1% | 25.0% | -36.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 7 | 82.1% | 100.0% | +17.9 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 61.9% | 0.0% | -61.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier Division matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier Division results
- 4 Sept · 20:00Shamrock Rovers0-0ShelbourneHome or Draw✓
- 30 Aug · 16:00Derry City3-3Shamrock RoversNo pick
- 28 Aug · 20:00Drogheda United2-3DundalkDraw✗
- 28 Aug · 19:45St Patrick's Athl.0-2WaterfordNo pick
- 28 Aug · 19:45Galway United1-1ShelbourneNo pick
- 28 Aug · 19:45Bohemians3-0Sligo RoversHome or Draw✓
- 21 Aug · 20:00Sligo Rovers0-0WaterfordNo pick
- 21 Aug · 19:45Dundalk1-2Galway UnitedNo pick
- 21 Aug · 19:45Drogheda United0-2St Patrick's Athl.Away or Draw✓
- 21 Aug · 19:45Bohemians5-3Derry CityNo pick
About Premier Division
Premier Division is the top flight of Ireland football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 2.75 goals per game over 144 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 51% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 38% with 34% drawn. Shamrock Rovers lead the table on 56 points from 29 games.
How the model handles Premier Division
Every Premier Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 12 Premier Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.4% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated Premier Division market so far is home or draw (82.1% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premier Division tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 82.1% claimed against 100.0% hit over 7 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premier Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.