Úrvalsdeild predictions
Iceland · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Úrvalsdeild match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Úrvalsdeild in the Bet Finder.
This week's Úrvalsdeild fixtures
No Úrvalsdeild fixtures in the next 7 days.
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 67 | 21 | +46 | 53 | |
| 2 |  Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 56 | 42 | +14 | 45 | |
| 3 |  KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 74 | 49 | +25 | 44 | |
| 4 |  Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 30 | |
| 5 |  IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 30 | |
| 6 |  Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 28 | |
| 7 |  Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 28 | |
| 8 |  Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 27 | |
| 9 |  FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 21 | |
| 10 |  Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 21 | |
| 11 |  KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 20 | |
| 12 |  IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
- Play-offs
- Relegation Playoffs
Official Úrvalsdeild table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Úrvalsdeild record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 16 | 66.5% | 50.0% | -16.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 12 | 85.4% | 91.7% | +6.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 4 | 59.7% | 50.0% | -9.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 4 | 78.3% | 75.0% | -3.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 64 | 65.5% | 73.4% | +7.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 32 | 66.6% | 78.1% | +11.5 |
Settled Úrvalsdeild matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Úrvalsdeild results
- 24 Oct · 17:15Vikingur Reykjavik2-2Fram ReykjavikHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Stjarnan6-0Valur ReykjavikBTTS✗
- 24 Oct · 15:00KA Akureyri5-1IBV VestmannaeyjarBTTS✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00FH hafnarfjordur1-2Thor AkureyriBTTS✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00KR Reykjavik8-3BreidablikBTTS✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00IA Akranes4-4KeflavikBTTS✓
- 19 Oct · 20:15Fram Reykjavik2-4IA AkranesBTTS✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00Thor Akureyri3-1StjarnanBTTS✓
- 17 Oct · 14:00Valur Reykjavik4-1KA AkureyriBTTS✓
- 17 Oct · 13:00Keflavik2-3KR ReykjavikBTTS✓
About Úrvalsdeild
Úrvalsdeild is the top flight of Iceland football with 12 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.99 goals per game over 162 matches: both teams scored in 73%, 73% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 22% drawn. Vikingur Reykjavik lead the table on 53 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Úrvalsdeild
Every Úrvalsdeild fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 132 Úrvalsdeild tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 67.9% on average and landing 72.7%. Its best-calibrated Úrvalsdeild market so far is home or draw (85.4% claimed against 91.7% hit over 12 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Úrvalsdeild predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Úrvalsdeild table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Úrvalsdeild market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Úrvalsdeild tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.4% claimed against 91.7% hit over 12 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Úrvalsdeild fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Úrvalsdeild by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.