Liga Nacional predictions
Honduras · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Nacional in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Nacional fixtures
- 25 Oct · 21:00CD MotaguavJuticalpaHome or DrawSolid
- 25 Oct · 23:15Lobos UpnfmvCD OlimpiaAway or DrawModerate
- 31 Oct · 1:00Estrella RojavAtletico IndependienteNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 21:00Lobos UpnfmvGénesisNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 23:15Real EspanavJuticalpaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 1:30Atlético CholomavCD OlimpiaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:00OlanchovPlatense FCNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 23:15CD MotaguavCD MarathonNo pick yet
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 24 | |
| 2 |  CD Olimpia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 23 | |
| 3 |  CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 | |
| 4 |  CD Motagua | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 | |
| 5 |  Atlético Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Olancho | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 | |
| 7 |  Estrella Roja | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Lobos Upnfm | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Génesis | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Atletico Independiente | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Platense FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 25 | -14 | 8 | |
| 12 |  Juticalpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 6 |
Official Liga Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Nacional record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 9 | 65.4% | 100.0% | +34.6 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 9 | 85.0% | 100.0% | +15.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 53.0% | 100.0% | +47.0 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 77.2% | 100.0% | +22.8 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 60.4% | 75.0% | +14.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Nacional matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Nacional results
- 25 Oct · 1:30Atletico Independiente2-2CD MarathonNo pick
- 25 Oct · 0:15Real Espana4-3Platense FCHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 22:00Atlético Choloma3-1GénesisNo pick
- 24 Oct · 2:00Olancho3-3Estrella RojaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 22:00Génesis1-2Estrella RojaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 2:30Atletico Independiente0-4Lobos UpnfmNo pick
- 18 Oct · 0:15Juticalpa1-2Atlético CholomaNo pick
- 17 Oct · 22:00Platense FC0-2CD MotaguaNo pick
- 16 Oct · 2:30CD Olimpia2-1Real EspanaHome or Draw✓
- 16 Oct · 0:15CD Marathon2-1OlanchoNo pick
About Liga Nacional
Liga Nacional is the top flight of Honduras football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.64 goals per game over 64 matches: both teams scored in 52%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 27% drawn. Real Espana lead the table on 24 points from 11 games.
How the model handles Liga Nacional
Every Liga Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 26 Liga Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.4% on average and landing 96.2%. Its best-calibrated Liga Nacional market so far is home or draw (85.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 9 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Nacional predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Nacional table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Nacional market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Nacional tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 9 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Nacional fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.