Liga Nacional predictions
Honduras · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Liga Nacional match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Liga Nacional in the Bet Finder.
This week's Liga Nacional fixtures
- 12 Sept · 2:30Estrella RojavPlatense FCNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 0:15OlanchovReal EspanaNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 2:30CD MotaguavGénesisHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 22:00Lobos UpnfmvAtlético CholomaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 0:15CD MarathonvCD OlimpiaNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 2:30Atletico IndependientevJuticalpaNo pick yet
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CD Olimpia | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 14 | |
| 2 |  CD Marathon | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 14 | |
| 3 |  Real Espana | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 14 | |
| 4 |  Génesis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 10 | |
| 5 |  CD Motagua | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Olancho | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Estrella Roja | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Atletico Independiente | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Atlético Choloma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Platense FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Juticalpa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 3 | |
| 12 |  Lobos Upnfm | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2 |
Official Liga Nacional table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Liga Nacional record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 67.2% | 100.0% | +32.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 86.0% | 100.0% | +14.0 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 55.1% | 100.0% | +44.9 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 78.7% | 100.0% | +21.3 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 60.9% | 66.7% | +5.8 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Liga Nacional matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Liga Nacional results
- 7 Sept · 2:30Juticalpa0-3GénesisNo pick
- 7 Sept · 0:15Real Espana2-0Lobos UpnfmHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 2:30CD Marathon5-0Estrella RojaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 0:15Atletico Independiente0-0CD MotaguaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 2:00Atlético Choloma0-0OlanchoNo pick
- 4 Sept · 2:00CD Olimpia4-1Platense FCHome or Draw✓
- 31 Aug · 0:15Real Espana2-1Atlético CholomaHome or Draw✓
- 30 Aug · 22:00Estrella Roja2-2CD OlimpiaNo pick
- 30 Aug · 2:30CD Motagua2-1OlanchoNo pick
- 30 Aug · 0:15Platense FC2-1Atletico IndependienteNo pick
About Liga Nacional
Liga Nacional is the top flight of Honduras football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.61 goals per game over 36 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 28% drawn. CD Olimpia lead the table on 14 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Liga Nacional
Every Liga Nacional fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 17 Liga Nacional tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.7% on average and landing 94.1%. Its best-calibrated Liga Nacional market so far is home or draw (86.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Liga Nacional predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Liga Nacional table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Liga Nacional market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Liga Nacional tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 86.0% claimed against 100.0% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Liga Nacional fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Liga Nacional by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.