Premier League predictions
Ethiopia · top flight · 20 teams · table updated 8 Jul
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
No Premier League fixtures in the next 7 days.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 23 | +20 | 68 | |
| 2 |  Negelle Arsi | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 60 | |
| 3 |  Mekelakeya | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44 | 31 | +13 | 57 | |
| 4 |  Fasil Ketema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 55 | |
| 5 |  Mebrat Hayl | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 54 | |
| 6 |  Kedus Giorgis | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 54 | |
| 7 |  Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 31 | +6 | 51 | |
| 8 |  Ethiopia Bunna | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40 | 39 | +1 | 51 | |
| 9 |  Awassa Kenema | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 50 | |
| 10 |  Sheger Ketema | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34 | 31 | +3 | 50 | |
| 11 |  Bahardar | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 48 | |
| 12 |  Hadiya Hosaena | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 48 | |
| 13 |  Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 47 | |
| 14 |  Ethiopian Medhin | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 46 | |
| 15 |  Adama Kenema | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 46 | |
| 16 |  Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 46 | |
| 17 |  Suhul Shire | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24 | 32 | -8 | 42 | |
| 18 |  Dire Dawa Kenema | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 42 | |
| 19 |  Mekelle Kenema | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 40 | |
| 20 |  Arba Minch Kenema | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 35 |
- Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
- Relegation
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-07-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
Not enough settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Premier League results
- 5 Jul · 14:00Sidama Bunna0-1Mebrat HaylDraw✗
- 3 Jul · 14:00Mekelakeya0-0Hadiya HosaenaDraw✓
- 3 Jul · 11:00Welayta Dicha0-0Ethiopia BunnaDraw✓
- 3 Jul · 8:00Ethiopia Nigd Bank2-2BahardarNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Suhul Shire0-2Sheger KetemaNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Awassa Kenema2-3Adama KenemaNo pick
- 2 Jul · 13:00Welwalo Adigrat Uni1-1Kedus GiorgisNo pick
- 1 Jul · 16:00Fasil Ketema1-0Ethiopian MedhinNo pick
- 1 Jul · 13:00Mekelle Kenema3-0Negelle ArsiNo pick
- 1 Jul · 13:00Dire Dawa Kenema2-1Arba Minch KenemaDraw✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Ethiopia football with 20 teams. The 2025/26 season has produced 1.78 goals per game over 380 matches: both teams scored in 40%, 28% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 31% with 40% drawn. Sidama Bunna lead the table on 68 points from 38 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Premier League tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.