Premier League predictions
Ethiopia · top flight · 18 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
- 25 Oct · 12:00Ethiopia BunnavMebrat HaylNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 12:00Negelle ArsivAdama KenemaNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 12:00Kedus GiorgisvSheger KetemaNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 13:00Gamo ChenchavEthiopia Nigd BankNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 15:00Welayta DichavHalaba KetemaNo pick yet
- 27 Oct · 12:00Ethiopian MedhinvMekelakeyaAway or DrawSolid
- 30 Oct · 12:00Sheger KetemavNegelle ArsiNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 13:00Halaba KetemavHadiya HosaenaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 12:00Ethiopia BunnavAdama KenemaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 12:00Fasil KetemavBahardarNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 12:00Mebrat HaylvKedus GiorgisNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 12:00Awassa KenemavGamo ChenchaNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 13:00Welayta DichavWelwalo Adigrat UniNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 15:00Sidama BunnavMekelakeyaNo pick yet
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 | |
| 2 |  Bahardar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 | |
| 3 |  Mekelakeya | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 | |
| 4 |  Negelle Arsi | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 | |
| 5 |  Halaba Ketema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | |
| 6 |  Adama Kenema | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 | |
| 7 |  Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 4 | |
| 8 |  Hadiya Hosaena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Mebrat Hayl | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Sheger Ketema | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| 11 |  Ethiopia Bunna | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 | |
| 12 |  Kedus Giorgis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 2 | |
| 13 |  Awassa Kenema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | |
| 14 |  Fasil Ketema | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | |
| 15 |  Welayta Dicha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 17 |  Sidama Bunna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Gamo Chencha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
- Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
- Relegation
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
Not enough settled Premier League tips since 27 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent Premier League results
- 24 Oct · 13:00Hadiya Hosaena1-0Fasil KetemaNo pick
- 22 Oct · 14:00Welayta Dicha1-3BahardarAway or Draw✓
- 22 Oct · 14:00Gamo Chencha0-1MekelakeyaNo pick
- 22 Oct · 13:00Kedus Giorgis1-1Adama KenemaNo pick
- 22 Oct · 13:00Awassa Kenema1-1Ethiopia Nigd BankAway or Draw✓
- 21 Oct · 13:00Ethiopia Bunna0-3Negelle ArsiNo pick
- 20 Oct · 14:00Halaba Ketema1-1Fasil KetemaNo pick
- 20 Oct · 13:00Mebrat Hayl1-0Sheger KetemaDraw✗
- 18 Oct · 13:00Mekelakeya0-1Ethiopia Nigd BankNo pick
- 18 Oct · 13:00Hadiya Hosaena1-1Welayta DichaDraw✓
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Ethiopia football with 18 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 1.50 goals per game over 24 matches: both teams scored in 38%, 13% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 13% with 42% drawn. Ethiopia Nigd Bank lead the table on 7 points from 3 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 27 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled Premier League tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Premier League tips since 27 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.