Meistriliiga predictions
Estonia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Meistriliiga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Meistriliiga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Meistriliiga fixtures
- 12 Sept · 12:30Kalju NommevTrans NarvaOver 2.5Solid
- 12 Sept · 12:30FC Levadia TallinnvVaprusHome or DrawSolid
- 12 Sept · 15:00Nõmme UnitedvFlora TallinnAway or DrawStrong
- 13 Sept · 12:30PaidevLaagriHome or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 15:00KuressaarevTammekaNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 17:00PaidevVaprusNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 17:00FC Levadia TallinnvTammekaHome or DrawSolid
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | +46 | 62 | |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 49 | |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 44 | |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | +7 | 42 | |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Meistriliiga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Esiliiga
Official Meistriliiga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Meistriliiga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 10 | 71.5% | 80.0% | +8.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 10 | 87.3% | 80.0% | -7.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 8 | 65.2% | 37.5% | -27.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 8 | 83.0% | 75.0% | -8.0 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 15 | 62.3% | 80.0% | +17.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 64.6% | 100.0% | +35.4 |
Settled Meistriliiga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Meistriliiga results
- 8 Sept · 16:00Kalju Nomme1-2Nõmme UnitedHome or Draw✗
- 8 Sept · 15:30Trans Narva2-2Flora TallinnAway or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 15:00Laagri0-2TammekaNo pick
- 6 Sept · 12:30Paide0-2FC Levadia TallinnOver 2.5✗
- 5 Sept · 17:00Flora Tallinn2-1Kalju NommeNo pick
- 5 Sept · 15:00Vaprus1-0Nõmme UnitedDraw✗
- 5 Sept · 12:30Kuressaare3-1Trans NarvaOver 2.5✓
- 2 Sept · 17:00Flora Tallinn3-2TammekaHome or Draw✓
- 30 Aug · 17:00Trans Narva0-2TammekaNo pick
- 30 Aug · 15:00Flora Tallinn1-2PaideBTTS✓
About Meistriliiga
Meistriliiga is the top flight of Estonia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.11 goals per game over 130 matches: both teams scored in 59%, 65% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 46% with 12% drawn. FC Levadia Tallinn lead the table on 62 points from 25 games.
How the model handles Meistriliiga
Every Meistriliiga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 52 Meistriliiga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.6% on average and landing 73.1%. Its best-calibrated Meistriliiga market so far is home or draw (87.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Meistriliiga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Meistriliiga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Meistriliiga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Meistriliiga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 87.3% claimed against 80.0% hit over 10 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Meistriliiga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Meistriliiga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.