Meistriliiga predictions
Estonia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Meistriliiga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Meistriliiga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Meistriliiga fixtures
- 27 Oct · 16:00FC Levadia TallinnvTammekaHome or DrawStrong
- 27 Oct · 16:00Trans NarvavNõmme UnitedNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 16:00VaprusvKuressaareNo pick yet
- 28 Oct · 17:00PaidevKalju NommeOver 2.5Moderate
- 31 Oct · 12:30VaprusvPaideNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 12:30TammekavLaagriNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Nõmme UnitedvFC Levadia TallinnNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 10:30Kalju NommevKuressaareNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 12:30Flora TallinnvTrans NarvaNo pick yet
Meistriliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 89 | 23 | +66 | 84 | |
| 2 |  Paide | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 39 | +14 | 60 | |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn | 33 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 47 | +16 | 58 | |
| 4 |  Kalju Nomme | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 51 | |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 33 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 50 | |
| 6 |  Laagri | 34 | 15 | 2 | 17 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 47 | |
| 7 |  Vaprus | 33 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 36 | |
| 8 |  Kuressaare | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 35 | |
| 9 |  Nõmme United | 33 | 11 | 1 | 21 | 54 | 76 | -22 | 34 | |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 33 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 75 | -49 | 20 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Meistriliiga (Relegation)
- Relegation - Esiliiga
Official Meistriliiga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Meistriliiga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 23 | 70.9% | 82.6% | +11.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 23 | 87.0% | 82.6% | -4.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 19 | 63.1% | 47.4% | -15.7 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 19 | 81.6% | 73.7% | -7.9 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 33 | 62.3% | 63.6% | +1.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 2 | 64.0% | 100.0% | +36.0 |
Settled Meistriliiga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Meistriliiga results
- 25 Oct · 12:30Kalju Nomme2-1Flora TallinnBTTS✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00FC Levadia Tallinn2-1LaagriHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 12:30Kuressaare0-1PaideAway or Draw✓
- 23 Oct · 17:00Tammeka5-1Trans NarvaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 17:00Nõmme United4-2VaprusNo pick
- 21 Oct · 16:00Laagri3-1Flora TallinnAway or Draw✗
- 18 Oct · 17:00Flora Tallinn2-0TammekaOver 2.5✗
- 18 Oct · 15:00Paide2-1Trans NarvaOver 2.5✓
- 18 Oct · 14:00Kuressaare0-2FC Levadia TallinnAway or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 12:30Laagri2-0VaprusNo pick
About Meistriliiga
Meistriliiga is the top flight of Estonia football with 10 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.11 goals per game over 166 matches: both teams scored in 57%, 65% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 12% drawn. FC Levadia Tallinn lead the table on 84 points from 33 games.
How the model handles Meistriliiga
Every Meistriliiga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 119 Meistriliiga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.0% on average and landing 70.6%. Its best-calibrated Meistriliiga market so far is over 2.5 (62.3% claimed against 63.6% hit over 33 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Meistriliiga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Meistriliiga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Meistriliiga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Meistriliiga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is over 2.5: 62.3% claimed against 63.6% hit over 33 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Meistriliiga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Meistriliiga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.