1. Division predictions
Cyprus · top flight · 14 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every 1. Division match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter 1. Division in the Bet Finder.
This week's 1. Division fixtures
- 26 Oct · 16:00Nea SalamisvPafosAway or DrawSolid
- 26 Oct · 17:00AEK LarnacavOmonia NicosiaNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 17:00KarmiotissavOlympiakosNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 14:00Krasava YpsonasvAEK LarnacaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 15:00Apollon LimassolvPafosNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 17:00Omonia NicosiavAELNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 14:00ArisvAnorthosisNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 15:00Omonia 29is MaiouvNea SalamisNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 17:00Omonia AradippouvApoel NicosiaNo pick yet
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEL | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 15 | |
| 2 |  AEK Larnaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 | |
| 3 |  Omonia Nicosia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 4 | +9 | 12 | |
| 4 |  Apollon Limassol | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 12 | |
| 5 |  Pafos | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 11 | |
| 6 |  Aris | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 | |
| 7 |  Apoel Nicosia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 8 | |
| 8 |  Omonia 29is Maiou | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 8 | |
| 9 |  Anorthosis | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Olympiakos | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Omonia Aradippou | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 | |
| 12 |  Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Karmiotissa | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
- Promotion - Cyprus League (Championship Group)
- Cyprus League (Relegation Group)
Official 1. Division table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's 1. Division record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 6 | 66.0% | 33.3% | -32.7 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 6 | 85.1% | 83.3% | -1.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 52.7% | 100.0% | +47.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 76.8% | 100.0% | +23.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 58.7% | 100.0% | +41.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled 1. Division matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent 1. Division results
- 25 Oct · 17:00AEL1-3ArisNo pick
- 25 Oct · 16:00Apoel Nicosia4-1Omonia 29is MaiouHome or Draw✓
- 25 Oct · 15:00Karmiotissa0-5Apollon LimassolAway or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 17:00Anorthosis2-0Omonia AradippouNo pick
- 24 Oct · 16:00Olympiakos1-1Krasava YpsonasNo pick
- 19 Oct · 17:00Omonia Nicosia2-2OlympiakosHome or Draw✓
- 19 Oct · 16:00Pafos0-0Apoel NicosiaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 17:00Omonia 29is Maiou1-0AnorthosisNo pick
- 18 Oct · 17:00Aris1-1AEK LarnacaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 16:00Omonia Aradippou0-2AELNo pick
About 1. Division
1. Division is the top flight of Cyprus football with 14 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 3.00 goals per game over 47 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 64% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 36% with 32% drawn. AEL lead the table on 15 points from 6 games.
How the model handles 1. Division
Every 1. Division fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 19 1. Division tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.3% on average and landing 73.7%. Its best-calibrated 1. Division market so far is home or draw (85.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these 1. Division predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the 1. Division table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which 1. Division market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled 1. Division tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 85.1% claimed against 83.3% hit over 6 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are 1. Division fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter 1. Division by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.