First NL predictions
Croatia · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every First NL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First NL in the Bet Finder.
This week's First NL fixtures
- 11 Sept · 14:30Dinamo Zagreb U21vSesveteNo pick yet
- 11 Sept · 14:30OpatijavBsk Bijelo BrdoNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 13:00Jadran LPvOrijent 1919No pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:30HrvacevDubrava ZagrebNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:30Mladost ŽdralovivKarlovac 1919No pick yet
- 12 Sept · 15:30Segesta SisakvDugopoljeNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 18:00HNK CibaliavKustosijaHome or DrawModerate
- 13 Sept · 13:45Croatia ZmijavcivVukovarNo pick yet
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Croatia Zmijavci | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 | |
| 2 |  Mladost Ždralovi | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 | |
| 3 |  Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 | |
| 4 |  Karlovac 1919 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Sesvete | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 | |
| 6 |  Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 | |
| 7 |  Dugopolje | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 | |
| 8 |  HNK Cibalia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | |
| 9 |  Jadran LP | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Orijent 1919 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 | |
| 11 |  Vukovar | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Opatija | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 13 |  Dubrava Zagreb | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Segesta Sisak | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 15 |  Kustosija | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | |
| 16 |  Hrvace | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
- Promotion - HNL
- Relegation
Official First NL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's First NL record
Not enough settled First NL tips since 23 Jul to publish a record yet — it fills in as the season goes. Site-wide numbers are on the track record page.
Recent First NL results
- 6 Sept · 18:00Karlovac 19193-1HrvaceNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:00Orijent 19191-1Croatia ZmijavciNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:00Kustosija0-1Dinamo Zagreb U21No pick
- 6 Sept · 16:00Bsk Bijelo Brdo1-0Jadran LPNo pick
- 6 Sept · 14:45Dubrava Zagreb2-1OpatijaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 16:00Sesvete2-0Segesta SisakNo pick
- 5 Sept · 16:00Dugopolje0-0Mladost ŽdraloviNo pick
- 5 Sept · 14:45Vukovar1-1HNK CibaliaNo pick
- 2 Sept · 18:30HNK Cibalia0-0Orijent 1919No pick
- 2 Sept · 16:30Opatija1-0HrvaceNo pick
About First NL
First NL is the second tier of Croatia football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.44 goals per game over 32 matches: both teams scored in 56%, 47% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 47% with 34% drawn. Croatia Zmijavci lead the table on 10 points from 4 games.
How the model handles First NL
Every First NL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Predictions on finished matches have only been frozen at kickoff since 23 Jul, and there are not yet enough settled First NL tips to publish a per-league record — it fills in as the season goes. The site-wide record is on the track record page. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First NL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First NL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First NL market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled First NL tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are First NL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First NL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.