First NL predictions
Croatia · second tier · 16 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every First NL match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter First NL in the Bet Finder.
This week's First NL fixtures
- 26 Oct · 13:00Mladost ŽdralovivJadran LPNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 13:00Dubrava ZagrebvSesveteNo pick yet
- 30 Oct · 13:00OpatijavMladost ŽdraloviNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 11:45HrvacevDugopoljeNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Bsk Bijelo BrdovKustosijaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00HNK CibaliavKarlovac 1919No pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Jadran LPvSegesta SisakNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 13:00Orijent 1919vVukovarNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 11:00Croatia ZmijavcivDinamo Zagreb U21No pick yet
First NL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Croatia Zmijavci | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 | |
| 2 |  Segesta Sisak | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 | |
| 3 |  Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 17 | |
| 4 |  Jadran LP | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 | |
| 5 |  HNK Cibalia | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 16 | |
| 6 |  Orijent 1919 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Opatija | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14 | |
| 8 |  Mladost Ždralovi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 14 | |
| 9 |  Karlovac 1919 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 | |
| 10 |  Kustosija | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 | |
| 11 |  Dinamo Zagreb U21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 | |
| 12 |  Sesvete | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 | |
| 13 |  Dubrava Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 11 | |
| 14 |  Vukovar | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 | |
| 15 |  Dugopolje | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 | |
| 16 |  Hrvace | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
- Promotion - HNL
- Relegation
Official First NL table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's First NL record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 5 | 80.6% | 80.0% | -0.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 1 | 58.7% | 0.0% | -58.7 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled First NL matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent First NL results
- 24 Oct · 17:00Karlovac 19190-2Orijent 1919No pick
- 24 Oct · 14:00Segesta Sisak2-0Croatia ZmijavciHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 14:00Dugopolje1-2OpatijaDraw✗
- 24 Oct · 11:45Vukovar0-2Bsk Bijelo BrdoHome or Draw✗
- 23 Oct · 14:00Sesvete0-0HrvaceNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Dinamo Zagreb U210-1HNK CibaliaNo pick
- 23 Oct · 14:00Dubrava Zagreb1-2KustosijaNo pick
- 18 Oct · 11:00Croatia Zmijavci3-1Mladost ŽdraloviNo pick
- 17 Oct · 17:00HNK Cibalia1-4Segesta SisakNo pick
- 17 Oct · 14:30Hrvace1-2KustosijaNo pick
About First NL
First NL is the second tier of Croatia football with 16 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.43 goals per game over 79 matches: both teams scored in 52%, 46% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 44% with 24% drawn. Croatia Zmijavci lead the table on 19 points from 10 games.
How the model handles First NL
Every First NL fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 6 First NL tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 77.0% on average and landing 66.7%. Its best-calibrated First NL market so far is home or draw (80.6% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these First NL predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the First NL table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which First NL market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled First NL tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 80.6% claimed against 80.0% hit over 5 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are First NL fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter First NL by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.