Premijer Liga predictions
Bosnia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 8 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premijer Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premijer Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premijer Liga fixtures
- 11 Sept · 19:00ČelikvRadnik BijeljinaHome or DrawModerate
- 12 Sept · 17:00Siroki BrijegvBSK Banja LukaNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 19:45Borac Banja LukavZrinjskiNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 17:30Sloga DobojvZeljeznicar SarajevoNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 19:45VeležvFK SarajevoNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 17:00Sloga DobojvBorac Banja LukaNo pick yet
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zrinjski | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 18 | |
| 2 |  Borac Banja Luka | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 | |
| 3 |  FK Sarajevo | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 | |
| 4 |  Siroki Brijeg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 | |
| 5 |  Sloga Doboj | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | |
| 6 |  Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | |
| 7 |  BSK Banja Luka | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 | |
| 8 |  Čelik | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 4 | |
| 9 |  Velež | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 | |
| 10 |  Radnik Bijeljina | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation
Official Premijer Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-08.
This season in numbers
The model's Premijer Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 12 | 66.5% | 75.0% | +8.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 13 | 84.7% | 92.3% | +7.6 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 0 | — | — | — |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 4 | 61.8% | 75.0% | +13.2 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premijer Liga matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premijer Liga results
- 6 Sept · 19:15Zrinjski2-1Siroki BrijegHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 16:30Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-1VeležNo pick
- 6 Sept · 16:30FK Sarajevo1-0Borac Banja LukaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 19:45Radnik Bijeljina1-2Sloga DobojNo pick
- 5 Sept · 12:30BSK Banja Luka3-2ČelikNo pick
- 2 Sept · 19:30Siroki Brijeg1-2FK SarajevoNo pick
- 2 Sept · 19:30Borac Banja Luka2-0Zeljeznicar SarajevoHome or Draw✓
- 2 Sept · 17:00Velež1-1Radnik BijeljinaHome or Draw✓
- 1 Sept · 19:45Zrinjski3-1BSK Banja LukaHome or Draw✓
- 1 Sept · 17:30Sloga Doboj0-0ČelikNo pick
About Premijer Liga
Premijer Liga is the top flight of Bosnia football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.46 goals per game over 28 matches: both teams scored in 54%, 50% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 57% with 21% drawn. Zrinjski lead the table on 18 points from 6 games.
How the model handles Premijer Liga
Every Premijer Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 29 Premijer Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 74.0% on average and landing 82.8%. Its best-calibrated Premijer Liga market so far is home or draw (84.7% claimed against 92.3% hit over 13 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premijer Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premijer Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premijer Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premijer Liga tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 84.7% claimed against 92.3% hit over 13 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premijer Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premijer Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.