Premijer Liga predictions
Bosnia · top flight · 10 teams · table updated 24 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Premijer Liga match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premijer Liga in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premijer Liga fixtures
- 25 Oct · 16:30Borac Banja LukavSloga DobojHome or DrawSolid
- 25 Oct · 19:00VeležvBSK Banja LukaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00BSK Banja LukavFK SarajevoNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00ČelikvBorac Banja LukaNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Radnik BijeljinavSiroki BrijegNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Sloga DobojvVeležNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 16:00Zeljeznicar SarajevovZrinjskiNo pick yet
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 7 | +20 | 30 | |
| 2 |  Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 22 | |
| 3 |  FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 | |
| 5 |  Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 | |
| 6 |  Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 | |
| 7 |  BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | |
| 8 |  Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 | |
| 9 |  Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 8 | |
| 10 |  Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
- Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
- Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
- Relegation
Official Premijer Liga table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-24.
This season in numbers
The model's Premijer Liga record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 17 | 67.6% | 82.4% | +14.8 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 20 | 84.7% | 95.0% | +10.3 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 2 | 50.8% | 100.0% | +49.2 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 2 | 73.5% | 100.0% | +26.5 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 7 | 62.2% | 42.9% | -19.3 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premijer Liga matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premijer Liga results
- 24 Oct · 18:46FK Sarajevo2-0Zeljeznicar SarajevoHome or Draw✓
- 24 Oct · 15:00Siroki Brijeg0-0ČelikNo pick
- 23 Oct · 19:00Zrinjski1-0Radnik BijeljinaHome or Draw✓
- 18 Oct · 19:00Čelik0-3ZrinjskiAway or Draw✓
- 17 Oct · 15:00Radnik Bijeljina1-1FK SarajevoNo pick
- 17 Oct · 12:00BSK Banja Luka1-1Zeljeznicar SarajevoNo pick
- 16 Oct · 17:00Sloga Doboj0-1Siroki BrijegNo pick
- 11 Oct · 17:30Čelik0-0FK SarajevoNo pick
- 11 Oct · 15:00Sloga Doboj2-6ZrinjskiAway Win✓
- 11 Oct · 14:00Radnik Bijeljina3-1Zeljeznicar SarajevoNo pick
About Premijer Liga
Premijer Liga is the top flight of Bosnia football with 10 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.48 goals per game over 52 matches: both teams scored in 50%, 40% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 29% drawn. Zrinjski lead the table on 30 points from 11 games.
How the model handles Premijer Liga
Every Premijer Liga fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 48 Premijer Liga tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 73.5% on average and landing 83.4%. Its best-calibrated Premijer Liga market so far is home or draw (84.7% claimed against 95.0% hit over 20 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premijer Liga predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premijer Liga table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premijer Liga market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Premijer Liga tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home or draw: 84.7% claimed against 95.0% hit over 20 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Premijer Liga fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premijer Liga by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.