Primera División predictions
Bolivia · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 25 Oct
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
- 25 Oct · 19:00Always ReadyvReal OruroHome or DrawSolid
- 25 Oct · 21:15AuroravReal TomayapoNo pick yet
- 25 Oct · 23:30Oriente PetrolerovThe StrongestNo pick yet
- 26 Oct · 22:00Nacional PotosívGuabiráHome or DrawStrong
- 27 Oct · 0:00BolívarvUniversitario de VintoHome or DrawStrong
- 30 Oct · 22:00Real PotosívIndependiente PetroleroNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 0:00Oriente PetrolerovAuroraNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 19:00Real OrurovNacional PotosíNo pick yet
- 31 Oct · 21:15ABBvSan Antonio Bulo BuloNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 19:00The StrongestvGualberto Villarroel SJNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 21:15GuabirávBolívarNo pick yet
- 1 Nov · 23:30Universitario de VintovAlways ReadyNo pick yet
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolívar | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 56 | 22 | +34 | 51 | |
| 2 |  Always Ready | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 50 | 15 | +35 | 48 | |
| 3 |  The Strongest | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 45 | |
| 4 |  Real Potosí | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 30 | 16 | +14 | 38 | |
| 5 |  Oriente Petrolero | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 34 | |
| 6 |  Aurora | 22 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 31 | |
| 7 |  Guabirá | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 30 | |
| 8 |  Independiente Petrolero | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 29 | |
| 9 |  Blooming | 23 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 31 | 25 | +6 | 28 | |
| 10 |  Nacional Potosí | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 28 | |
| 11 |  Real Oruro | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 27 | |
| 12 |  San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 24 | |
| 13 |  Universitario de Vinto | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 21 | |
| 14 |  Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 20 | |
| 15 |  ABB | 23 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 20 | |
| 16 |  Real Tomayapo | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 39 | -23 | 20 |
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-10-25.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 27 | 68.9% | 70.4% | +1.5 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 27 | 85.5% | 88.9% | +3.4 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 5 | 56.7% | 100.0% | +43.3 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 5 | 77.4% | 100.0% | +22.6 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 30 | 63.8% | 76.7% | +12.9 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 1 | 65.4% | 0.0% | -65.4 |
Settled Primera División matches since 27 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 25 Oct · 0:30Independiente Petrolero4-2ABBOver 2.5✓
- 24 Oct · 22:15San Antonio Bulo Bulo2-1Real PotosíNo pick
- 24 Oct · 20:00Gualberto Villarroel SJ2-1BloomingHome or Draw✓
- 19 Oct · 0:30Guabirá1-1Oriente PetroleroNo pick
- 18 Oct · 22:15The Strongest2-1Always ReadyNo pick
- 18 Oct · 20:00Nacional Potosí0-1BolívarBTTS✗
- 18 Oct · 0:30Blooming0-0Independiente PetroleroNo pick
- 17 Oct · 22:15Universitario de Vinto2-1San Antonio Bulo BuloNo pick
- 17 Oct · 20:00Real Oruro1-0AuroraNo pick
- 17 Oct · 1:00Real Tomayapo1-0Gualberto Villarroel SJNo pick
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Bolivia football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.02 goals per game over 179 matches: both teams scored in 60%, 61% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 50% with 24% drawn. Bolívar lead the table on 51 points from 22 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 27 Jul, the model has settled 95 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 71.8% on average and landing 80.0%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (68.9% claimed against 70.4% hit over 27 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 27 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 68.9% claimed against 70.4% hit over 27 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.