Primera División predictions
Bolivia · top flight · 16 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Primera División match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Primera División in the Bet Finder.
This week's Primera División fixtures
- 11 Sept · 23:00San Antonio Bulo BulovAuroraNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 1:00Real PotosívOriente PetroleroNo pick yet
- 12 Sept · 20:00Gualberto Villarroel SJvNacional PotosíOver 2.5Moderate
- 12 Sept · 22:15The StrongestvReal OruroHome or DrawSolid
- 13 Sept · 0:30BloomingvABBNo pick yet
- 13 Sept · 20:00Always ReadyvGuabiráHome or DrawStrong
- 13 Sept · 22:15Universitario de VintovIndependiente PetroleroNo pick yet
- 14 Sept · 0:30Real TomayapovBolívarNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 20:00Real OrurovReal PotosíNo pick yet
- 15 Sept · 22:15ABBvThe StrongestNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 20:00GuabirávAuroraNo pick yet
- 16 Sept · 23:30Nacional PotosívAlways ReadyNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 1:30BloomingvUniversitario de VintoNo pick yet
- 17 Sept · 23:30Real TomayapovOriente PetroleroNo pick yet
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bolívar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 19 | +29 | 39 | |
| 2 |  Always Ready | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 37 | 13 | +24 | 39 | |
| 3 |  The Strongest | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 32 | 21 | +11 | 36 | |
| 4 |  Oriente Petrolero | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 27 | |
| 5 |  Aurora | 18 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 24 | +4 | 27 | |
| 6 |  Real Potosí | 18 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 26 | |
| 7 |  Guabirá | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 26 | |
| 8 |  Independiente Petrolero | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 25 | |
| 9 |  Nacional Potosí | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 24 | +3 | 24 | |
| 10 |  Blooming | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 23 | |
| 11 |  Real Oruro | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 21 | |
| 12 |  ABB | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 20 | |
| 13 |  San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 37 | -19 | 17 | |
| 14 |  Real Tomayapo | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 35 | -21 | 16 | |
| 15 |  Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 18 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 19 | 30 | -11 | 14 | |
| 16 |  Universitario de Vinto | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 37 | -15 | 14 |
Official Primera División table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Primera División record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 18 | 69.6% | 66.7% | -2.9 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 20 | 85.2% | 90.0% | +4.8 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 3 | 56.9% | 100.0% | +43.1 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 3 | 77.9% | 100.0% | +22.1 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 21 | 64.1% | 85.7% | +21.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Primera División matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Primera División results
- 7 Sept · 1:00Nacional Potosí2-1BloomingHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 23:00The Strongest3-1Real TomayapoHome or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 20:00Independiente Petrolero0-4BolívarAway or Draw✓
- 6 Sept · 0:30Oriente Petrolero1-2Always ReadyNo pick
- 5 Sept · 22:15Aurora3-0Gualberto Villarroel SJNo pick
- 5 Sept · 20:00Guabirá1-1Real PotosíNo pick
- 4 Sept · 22:15ABB2-0Universitario de VintoNo pick
- 4 Sept · 20:00Real Oruro2-0San Antonio Bulo BuloNo pick
- 28 Aug · 1:30Bolívar4-1ABBOver 2.5✓
- 27 Aug · 23:30Independiente Petrolero3-1GuabiráHome or Draw✓
About Primera División
Primera División is the top flight of Bolivia football with 16 teams. The 2026 season has produced 3.05 goals per game over 144 matches: both teams scored in 63%, 62% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 49% with 26% drawn. Bolívar lead the table on 39 points from 18 games.
How the model handles Primera División
Every Primera División fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 65 Primera División tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 72.4% on average and landing 83.1%. Its best-calibrated Primera División market so far is home win (69.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 18 tips). Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Primera División predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Primera División table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Primera División market is the model most reliable in?
- On settled Primera División tips since 23 Jul, the closest match between claimed and actual hit rate is home win: 69.6% claimed against 66.7% hit over 18 tips. The full per-market breakdown is in the record table on this page, and it is recomputed daily as matches settle.
- How far ahead are Primera División fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Primera División by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.