Premier League predictions
Bahrain · top flight · 12 teams · table updated 9 Sept
Calibrated probabilities for every Premier League match, frozen at kickoff and judged in public. Filter Premier League in the Bet Finder.
This week's Premier League fixtures
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Khalidiya | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 | |
| 2 |  Al Riffa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 6 | |
| 3 |  Sitra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 4 | |
| 4 |  Al Ahli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 | |
| 5 |  Al-Hidd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 | |
| 6 |  Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | |
| 7 |  Al Najma | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | |
| 8 |  Muharraq | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 | |
| 9 |  A'Ali | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | |
| 10 |  East Riffa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | |
| 11 |  Manama | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 | |
| 12 |  Malkiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
- Promotion - AFC Champions League 2
- Premier League (Relegation)
- Relegation
Official Premier League table via API-Sports · updated 2026-09-09.
This season in numbers
The model's Premier League record
| Market | Tips | Claimed | Hit | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win≥ 57% | 1 | 59.9% | 100.0% | +40.1 |
| Home or draw≥ 80% | 1 | 80.9% | 100.0% | +19.1 |
| Away win≥ 50% | 1 | 52.4% | 100.0% | +47.6 |
| Away or draw≥ 73% | 1 | 76.8% | 100.0% | +23.2 |
| Over 2.5≥ 57% | 3 | 58.1% | 66.7% | +8.6 |
| BTTS≥ 63% | 0 | — | — | — |
Settled Premier League matches since 23 Julwhere the model cleared each market's tip threshold. Predictions are frozen at kickoff, so nothing here was re-scored after the fact. Rows under 5 tips are greyed.
Recent Premier League results
- 5 Sept · 17:00Manama1-5Al RiffaNo pick
- 5 Sept · 17:00Al-Hidd0-1Al AhliNo pick
- 4 Sept · 17:00Khalidiya3-1A'AliHome Win✓
- 4 Sept · 17:00Al Ittifaq Maqaba1-0MuharraqNo pick
- 2 Sept · 17:00Malkiya0-1Al NajmaNo pick
- 2 Sept · 17:00East Riffa0-0SitraNo pick
- 29 Aug · 17:00Al Riffa2-0Al Ittifaq MaqabaNo pick
- 29 Aug · 17:00A'Ali1-1ManamaNo pick
- 28 Aug · 17:00East Riffa0-2Al-HiddNo pick
- 28 Aug · 17:00Muharraq1-1Al AhliOver 2.5✗
About Premier League
Premier League is the top flight of Bahrain football with 12 teams. The 2026/27 season has produced 2.75 goals per game over 12 matches: both teams scored in 42%, 33% went over 2.5 goals, and the home side won 33% with 25% drawn. Khalidiya lead the table on 6 points from 2 games.
How the model handles Premier League
Every Premier League fixture is scored by the same calibrated model that covers 164+ competitions: home, draw and away probabilities from a result classifier, and both-teams-to-score and over/under goals from a Poisson goal model, each passed through its own calibration layer so a displayed 70% means roughly 70%. Since predictions were frozen at kickoff on 23 Jul, the model has settled 7 Premier League tips at the strict thresholds, claiming 63.5% on average and landing 85.7%. Predictions appear up to three days before kick-off and are re-scored every morning until the match starts, then frozen for good.
Frequently asked questions
- How are these Premier League predictions made?
- Each match gets probabilities from two machine-learning models trained on results since 2021: a three-way result classifier for home, draw and away, and a Poisson goal model for both-teams-to-score and over/under goals. Inputs are recent venue-specific form, Elo ratings, rest days, head-to-head history and, where the data exists, shot and expected-goals aggregates. Every output is passed through an isotonic calibration layer fitted on a held-out season, so the displayed percentages match real-world frequencies — the methodology page has the detail. Predictions are frozen at kickoff and never edited afterwards.
- Where does the Premier League table come from?
- It is the official standings feed from our data provider, API-Sports, refreshed nightly. We deliberately do not compute it from results ourselves: head-to-head tiebreakers, points deductions, and split, conference or Apertura/Clausura formats are all shown exactly as the competition publishes them.
- Which Premier League market is the model most reliable in?
- There are not yet enough settled Premier League tips since 23 Jul to say. The record table on this page fills in as the season goes; until then the site-wide track record is the best guide to how each market behaves.
- How far ahead are Premier League fixtures predicted?
- Up to three days before kick-off. Fixtures are imported a week ahead, each prediction is re-scored every morning as form and ratings update, and it is frozen the moment the match starts. Exact probabilities are shown to free account holders; the headline call is public. To filter Premier League by market and probability, use the Bet Finder.